By the international crude oil prices support, ethylene and benzene prices of basic raw materials is still strong, driven by chemicals market continues to pick up. The better the performance of species concentrated and adipic acid, in the synthetic rubber. Synthetic rubber industry is now fully shown signs of improvement, styrene-butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber weeks or about 7%, 6%, the price of natural rubber in the domestic purchasing and storage expectations and Southeast Asia continued strong stop tapping period, making synthetic rubber alternatives advantage gradually revealed, Secondly feedstock butadiene prices to bring the cost of support.
The industry expects the downstream automobile manufacturers will usher in the traditional sales season tire sales increased manufacturers are expected to fill inventory needs inventory consumption of synthetic rubber, making the market the same to the good trend.
The adipic acid continuation of the rebound trend, about 5% of the adipic acid prices have gone up last week, rising to two months since the high point, or more than 10% since the end of November. Manufacturers limited production price effect appeared together on the part of the production plant accident parking, adipic acid market stocks dropped. It is understood that the cost factors influence short-term business expansion is not strong, adipic constitute price support.
Policy support and demand of synthetic rubber opportunities to the good expected emerge
Last week, the the outstanding synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, polybutadiene rubber weekly gain in more than 6% and increase the forefront among the chemicals. The industry is expected, policy support and downstream demand driven by the good expected, the synthetic rubber market is expected to be further improved. Study the logic of its rebound, mainly in the following aspects:
First, support the policy side, the government of natural rubber Shouchu bring supporting role. It is understood that the relevant departments have been start Shouchu work 150000-200000 tons of natural rubber is batches Shouchu to Hainan State Farms, Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation Unit. It is reported that before the end of the purchasing and storage quantity of 60,000 tons, the price of 24,600 yuan / ton, to buy from the spot market, the rest will start next year. Pull natural rubber prices higher, thus boosting the synthetic rubber market to a certain extent.
Second, the cost of support, butadiene prices steady rise has brought the cost of supporting positive for synthetic rubber market. Butadiene high point since the beginning of the year 27,000 yuan per ton, $ 12,000 per ton, the interval decreases up to 50%, is currently in the vicinity of the cost, the corporate parking insured wishes strong. The latest data show that the The Beijing Oriental 30,000 tons / year butadiene plant shut down for maintenance on September 11, specific restart time TBD; Qi Xiang Tenda (002,408, stock it) 10 million tons / year butadiene plant currently first-line maintenance, started around 7 percent, Fushun Petrochemical 30,000 tons / year butadiene plant in the parking.
Third, the demand is expected to improve, on the one hand, due to the small device reasons, Sinopec and PetroChina SBR market investment goods, the market is relatively tight supply. The second car into the traditional sales season, the market expects tire demand will rise. Recent Automobile Association announced in November the country’s automobile production and sales data show that total sales of 791,000 in November, a growth of 11.52%, up 8.16% MoM and year-on-year increase in showed different degrees, of which passenger cars grew faster than commercial vehicles, expected full-year production and sales are expected to double to over 19 million.
Limited production price effect appeared adipic acid rebound acceleration
Parking because the manufacturers limited production price and part of the production plant accident, Zhou Huadong region of adipic acid prices have gone up about 5%, in the range of 500-600 yuan per ton, the continuation of the warming trend since the end of November, the insured, the effect of gradually revealed. From the the detailed logical view of the rebound, mainly as follows:
First, pre sustained Zoudie adipic acid makes manufacturers suffered serious losses, high point since the beginning of this year to early July, a drop of more than 40% of the range, according to preliminary estimates, per ton of losses amounting to more than $ 3,000. Therefore, the manufacturers are forced to take joint production measures, obviously under control after nearly two months limited production price, the amount of goods on the market, a large number of low-cost inventory Paohuo phenomenon had disappeared.
Adipic acid plant accident last week, some enterprises parking, plus cold weather led to supply transport is blocked, adipic acid market to discuss prices rose. Supply side continued joint insured, downstream businesses in the market outlook, and there are also good expectations.
From manufacturers device situation, most of the device is discontinued or low-load operation, and short-term expansion will yet. Major domestic manufacturers Liaoning Petrochemical 16 million tons of annual production capacity of 160,000 tons of Shandong Hongye Chemical Shandong Haili Chemical 75,000 tons, 75,000 tons of days of high profits (600,339, stock it), the industry total production capacity of about 1,125,000 tons. The actual operation, Shandong Haili started general, Hong industry operating rate of about 5 percent, the production unit for low-load operation in the days of high profits, some small businesses are to maintain low operating rates or shut down for maintenance. Some manufacturers, adipic acid market has risen, due to high cost reasons, its price is still losing money, so was no intention to enhance the load in the short-term.
For the afternoon, the raw material benzene outer disk continue to ratchet up domestic benzene prices hit a high point for the year, the greater the possibility of a high level consolidation. In addition, in the adipic acid remains in reduced losses and state, the keynote of the limited production price will not be broken. Adipic acid market in the short term will continue rising momentum, until the return to the breakeven point. But it must be noted that, 160,000 tons of adipic new capacity can not be discounted, Huaneng Power (600,426, stock it) new capacity has been basically formed, the recent causes of accidents occur parking, put into operation late pressure brought to the market heavier.
Translated by Google Translator from http://news.cria.org.cn/4/12049.html
