© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A display of stock information is seen in front of buildings in Lujiazui financial district that are shrouded in fog amid an orange alert for heavy fog in Shanghai, China January 31, 2024. REUTERS/Xihao Jiang/File Photo
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By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian shares eased on Monday and the dollar was firm after a robust U.S. jobs report dashed expectations of a near-term interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, while stocks in China were volatile as investor sentiment remained shaky.
Oil prices surged following fresh strikes on Iran-aligned factions in Iraq, Syria and Yemen by the United States, with rising tension in the Middle East keeping risk appetite in check.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.21% having dropped more than 1% earlier in the session.
European bourses looked set for a muted open, with Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.09%, German DAX futures down 0.19% and FTSE futures up 0.07%.
The focus in Asia has been on slumping Chinese stocks as investor sentiment remains rock-bottom on lack of policy support and broad stimulus.
China’s securities regulator vowed to prevent abnormal market fluctuation on Sunday, but announced no specific measures.
“We need to see a bit more than that,” said Rob Carnell, head of Asia-Pacific research at ING, adding that it was likely that more piecemeal measures were on the way.
“I think what they’re trying to do is buy time until the Two sessions come where we’re going to see all of the policy measures unveiled.”
China’s blue-chip index was up 1% on Monday afternoon after dropping 2% earlier in the session, having touched a fresh five-year low last week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.5%.
State-backed investors – dubbed the “national team”, have stepped up buying blue-chip funds to support the market in recent weeks, but so far have failed to arrest a slump.
FED FOCUS
Global markets have been focused on the timing of when the Fed would start cutting rates since the central bank surprised markets with its dovish tilt in December.
Traders initially priced in March as the starting point of the central bank’s easing cycle but a slate of strong economic data along with resistance from central bankers have led to investors scaling back their bets on an early rate cut.
Markets are currently pricing in an 80% chance of the Fed standing pat on rates in March, compared with a 33% chance at the start of the year, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Traders are now pricing in just below 120 basis points of cuts this year.
Data on Friday showed U.S. job growth accelerated in January and wages increased by the most in nearly two years, signs of persistent strength in the labour market that could push the Fed to start its easing cycle a bit later in the year than markets anticipated.
“I think the Fed could be concerned with the link between sticky wages and future inflation prints,” said Ben Bennett, APAC investment strategist for Legal and General Investment Management. “Underlying economic activity has also been robust, so I think the Fed could be back in wait-and-see mode.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank can be “prudent” in deciding when to cut interest rates, with a strong economy allowing central bankers time to build confidence inflation will continue falling.
“We have to balance the risk of moving too soon … or too late,” he said in an interview with CBS news show “60 Minutes” that aired Sunday evening in the United States.
The strong payrolls report pushed Treasury yields higher, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes at 4.066%. Other regional bond yields took the cue and were higher on Monday, with yields on Australia’s 10-year bond and South Korea’s 10-year Treasury bond rising 11 basis points. [US/]
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, scaled a fresh eight-week peak of 104.18, pinning the Japanese yen near a two-month low. [FRX/]
U.S. crude rose 0.42% to $72.58 per barrel and Brent was at $77.75, up 0.54% on the day as escalating geopolitical tension and its repercussions on oil supply boosted prices.
Source: Investing.com
