Rubber: tight supply, better demand, price rise is expected to rise

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abstract

In the second quarter, the global natural rubber production was seasonally low, and is currently in the pre-opening period. Both China and Thailand are facing drought problems, which may lead to the impact of cutting. In addition, the reduction of domestic futures premium is not conducive to arbitrage demand, so the supply in the second quarter is expected to decrease. the amount. The demand side was well-received by real estate and infrastructure. In the second quarter, the domestic natural rubber has a high probability of entering the seasonal market, and the spot price is expected to strengthen. However, the contract for the 05 contract was suppressed by the warehouse receipts, and there may be an early return this year. The operation is based on the current operation, while the disk is waiting for the store and the purchase opportunity after the 05 contract warehouse order problem is resolved.

Core view

After the Ching Ming Festival in China, large-scale cutting will be carried out, and the rainfall will be less. The raw materials at the beginning of the cutting will be normal. Thailand’s domestic stocks are low, and the second quarter is gradually cutting. The production area is dry and rainy. The March rainfall is abnormally low, and the drought may be extended to May. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether it will affect the cutting, thus raising the raw materials and the current period. price.

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In the second quarter, Thailand’s Vietnamese exports were seasonally low, and the current price gap in China was narrowing. The import volume in the second quarter is expected to decline year-on-year, and the decline is expected to be close to 10%.

China’s tire terminal demand is still good, real estate and infrastructure construction to drive heavy truck sales and replacement demand, heavy-duty trucks to replace demand also drive sales; in addition, the export atmosphere improved to support the second quarter of tire exports rebound; passenger car sales may be slowed by policy stimulus Downward speed, but it is difficult to have a bright performance. The overall assessment was better in the second quarter.

In March, affected by the VAT reduction forecast, the inventory outside Qingdao is still in the process of increase. The expectation is fulfilled and the supply in the second quarter is declining and the demand is stable. The inventory outside the zone is expected to decline.

In the second quarter, the spot price is expected to stabilize and rise. The price range is expected to be 11,000-12000. The disk is suppressed by the 05 contract warehouse receipt. Before the problem is resolved, it will not be involved in the unilateral period. The current basis is expected to continue to narrow, and the current position can continue to hold. Yes; the spot side focuses on arbitrage opportunities between STR20, SIR20, RSS3, and 3L, which are expected to be old latex.

Report body

First, first quarter market review

In the first quarter, the Hujiao 1905 contract operated at an interval of 11,000-13000. The main gains were concentrated after the Spring Festival, and the commodity prices fell weakly before the Spring Festival. After the holiday, due to the expected stimulus of the policy and the replenishment of the rework, the expected difference in the goods was repaired. The Hujiao industry had a strong bullish atmosphere, which led to a rapid rise to around 13,000. Since then, with the VAT downgrade, the boots have not exceeded the market’s expected stimulus measures. In addition, the high inventory of the superimposed goods, the start of the demand side has not been confirmed, resulting in a fall. Implemented in the rubber market, the main force changed the month in late March, the 1909 contract position exceeded 1905, but the main role of the industry hedge short-selling has not yet moved the position, the bulls face a certain delivery pressure, the relative disk continues to fall, the spot is very strong The resilience of the period, the current price spread continues to narrow. Compared with the previous year’s 09 contract, the warehouse receipt return logic is likely to be cashed ahead of schedule this year.

Second and second quarters of gradual opening, supply expectations are tight

1. The domestic production area is about to be cut, and the supply is gradually increasing.

From the end of March to April, the domestic production area was in the opening period. At the end of March, some areas in the Yunnan production area were cut, and a few areas were affected by powdery mildew. The impact was small. After the Ching Ming Festival, large areas were expected to be cut and the raw materials for the initial cut. The price is around 9.5 yuan, which is equivalent to the same period last year, but higher than most of the previous year. In addition, some areas in Hainan have been cut and cut, and the cutting time is 2 weeks earlier than in previous years. However, the large-scale cutting volume is also concentrated in Qingming. The raw material price is about 12 yuan/kg at the beginning of the cutting, and the price is equivalent to that of the beginning of last year. .

It is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can be firm after the release of the later production. The price of Yunnan continues to be lower than 10 yuan/kg, which has an inhibitory effect on the output. It can be seen from the production season map that in the second quarter, the output is gradually increasing. The price of cutting this year is generally higher than that of last year. It has certain stimulation for tapping enthusiasm. Last year, the low price led to the domestic production of self-produced raw materials dropped to about 620,000 tons.

2. Thailand is dry and has an impact on El Nino or on cutting

As can be seen from the figure below, the average temperature in the main areas of Thailand in the first quarter of this year is higher than in previous years and the rainfall is significantly lower than in previous years. The main cause of this phenomenon is the El Niño phenomenon. According to reports, Thailand began to enter the summer season on February 21, and then many high temperatures occurred, generally reaching 38 ° C. In addition, there was drought and little rain. The rainfall in March was abnormally low. This year’s drought came early and lasted for a long time. Extended to May. This period of time is in the growth period of the gum tree, if the rainfall continues to be less may cause the delay of the cutting time. As a result, the initial supply is tight. Generally speaking, Thailand’s output is gradually increasing in June, but if the weather affects the cutting, it will lead to a decrease in supply in the second quarter. In the first of 2016, the El Niño phenomenon occurred in Thailand. As a result, the raw materials were tight at the beginning of the cut, and the price rose sharply. The price of glue once rose to 60 baht/kg, and the cup rubber was 50 baht/kg. At the same time, the influence of weather in the production areas at home and abroad led to the rapid rise of Hujiao. The main price rose rapidly from RMB 10,000 to RMB 13,500. At present, the price of rubber is still at a historically low level. The raw materials and finished product inventory of the factory are low. Once there is a problem at the supply end, it may be reproduced in history.

Since December last year, China’s CIF arrival price and Thailand’s FOB price have been in an upside down pattern, which also indicates that the Thai factory warehouse is low and there is no selling pressure.

3. Seasonal lows in major producing countries

In the second quarter of Thailand, due to the low output, the export is often the lowest point of the year. In 2018, due to the export restrictions of the three countries in January-March, the export was delayed, and the concentration broke out in April. The export volume of Thailand in the second quarter of 2014-2017 accounted for the whole year. 22%. In the first two months of this year, Thailand’s exports to the world totaled 860,000 tons, down 1%, of which exports to China was 470,000 tons, down 3% year-on-year. Due to the current low domestic inventory in Thailand, the export delay in the second quarter will be greater than that in the second quarter. In the second quarter of last year, the export volume to China was 840,000 tons. This year, the year-on-year decline is expected to be 5-10%.

Vietnam’s exports still have a strong seasonality. Exports were low in February-May, while exports increased rapidly in June and peaked in exports in the third and fourth quarters. In recent years, Vietnam’s have increased significantly, especially 3L performance and price have certain advantages, which has a big impact on the entire latex market. Last year, Vietnam’s natural totaled 1.58 million tons, an increase of 14%, of which exports to China 1.04 million tons, an increase of 16%. In the first two months of this year, exports remained at a relatively high level, with exports to the world and China at 240,000 tons and 150,000 tons, respectively, with growth rates of 27% and 53%. Vietnam’s 3L has not been able to spread the full milk price gap, and it faces large inventory pressure, so it is expected to maintain a high export growth rate in the second quarter.

4. Hujiao futures narrowed, and import drivers continued to decline.

China’s rubber import internal driving is still arbitrage, while the external factors are mainly foreign production and exports. Thailand + Vietnam’s export volume has a lead of about one month for China’s imports, and the current price difference is also for China’s imports. About 2 months of leadership. From the perspective of external drivers, it is still the case before the analysis. Thailand and Vietnam are exporting low in the second quarter, and Thailand’s export volume is expected to fall by 5-10% year-on-year. From the perspective of internal driving, the narrowing of the premium on the disk also led to a weakening of the import drive. Since 2019, Hujiao 1905 has been in the spot for mixed rubber. The premium has been around 1000. Since mid-March, the disk has been suppressed by warehouse receipts and the macro data has been degraded, which has caused the price to rise sharply. It narrowed and was close to Pingshui at the end of March.

The above factors all support the decline of China’s imports in the second quarter. In the first two months of this year, China’s imports of natural rubber (including mixed) totaled 710,000 tons, down 6% year-on-year. Combined with the above factors, the import volume in the second quarter of this year may fall by about 10%. The import volume is expected to be 1.04 million tons.

Third, the demand side is temporarily improving, and the second quarter is optimistic.

1. Tire companies start high, and short-term demand supports

Since the beginning of this year, the operating rate of all steel and semi-steel in China has been at a relatively high level and a high operating rate. On the one hand, the low raw material price makes the tire factory profitable, so it is unwilling to reduce the load, and on the other hand Said, it is the support of better terminal demand. Since last year, China’s passenger cars have continued to decline, but the over-expectation of heavy-duty truck sales has supported the all-steel . Specifically, the good quality of heavy truck data mainly comes from the high starting of real estate, which also makes the replacement supported.

2. Real estate pulls, all steel tire demand has support

Since 18 years, the growth rate of new construction area of ​​housing has been at a relatively high level. During the Spring Festival in February of 19, the construction started to be lower. However, from the national cement price index, there is a steady state at the end of March, which also indicates that the short-term construction is improving. In addition, from the fourth quarter of 18th, infrastructure investment, real estate investment and construction projects completed a year-on-year growth rate, which began to stabilize and rebound, which also supported real estate investment and infrastructure investment in the first two quarters of this year.

In the first quarter of 19th, the highlight of the rubber demand side still came from heavy trucks. The sales volume of heavy trucks in January-March was 315,000, an increase of 9%. From the specific breakdown, the proportion of semi-trailer tractors decreased in January-February, while the proportion of complete vehicles increased, and heavy-duty truck drivers still led to real estate and infrastructure investment. On the one hand, the real estate and infrastructure construction started after the holiday, which made the construction vehicle arrive in the peak season. On the other hand, in the consumption of tractors, the diesel tractor is not good but the natural gas heavy truck market is hot. In addition, in the medium and long term, the current heavy trucks have a total holding capacity of 6 million units, and the cumulative sales volume of 2010-2013 is 3.3 million units. The replacement period is 7-8 years. Therefore, the demand for replacement in the next few years will be large, and the national standard for heavy trucks will be Implemented in July 2021, some core areas were implemented 1-2 years in advance, and the update cycle was launched.

Real estate and infrastructure investment not only ensure the sales of heavy trucks, but also stimulate certain replacement demand. In the first two months of this year, China’s road freight volume and freight turnover have improved, including road transportation volume of 4.86 billion tons, up 4% year-on-year. Road freight turnover totaled 878.2 billion ton-kilometers, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year.

The infrastructure construction will continue to be driven by the launch of real estate. We remain optimistic about the all-steel tire consumption in the second quarter of this year.

3. Passenger cars are difficult to play in the second quarter.

Since the sales of passenger cars for the first time in two years since last year, and the decline in the first two months of 2019, the cumulative sales volume was 3.24 million units, down 17.6 year-on-year. Sales of a series of measures such as price cuts improved in March. We believe that passenger car sales in the second quarter are still difficult to change the overall downward trend, and some short-term policy stimulus is also difficult to achieve substantial benefits, only to suppress the downside speed. Fortunately, the decline in passenger car sales has a small impact on tire demand and a low contribution rate to natural rubber consumption.

4. The trading atmosphere is moderate and exports are expected to pick up

Exports into the main driving force of tire consumption last year, but the export atmosphere is not optimistic, the EU’s double-reverse for all steel tires has greatly reduced the export volume, the export volume decreased from 378,000 tons in 2017 to 197,000 tons, the average unit price is 2.44 US dollars. /kg increased to $2.63/kg. In addition, the trade dispute between China and the United States has led to obvious export smuggling. In particular, the trade dispute with the United States has intensified the grabbing of exports. The annual steel tires (tax number 40112000) exported to the United States 633,200 tons, an increase of 23%, and the export unit price was also from 2017. 2.34 /kg increased to 2.44 /kg. Last year? Since the month, out? The mouth growth rate begins? The sharp slowdown, the impact of the first quarter of this year is still in the first quarter of January, China’s tire exports amounted to 73.23 million, down 3.2%.

At the beginning of this year, Sino-US trade frictions eased. The two sides reached a consensus on reducing trade deficits, technology transfer, and intellectual property protection. They will not further increase import tariffs, but the tariffs that have been imposed have not been lowered, and exports to the second quarter. The atmosphere remains cautiously optimistic, and the slowdown in the export-stricken effect will help restore US exports.

4. Supply and demand are tight, and it is expected to enter the de-library cycle

The bonded area inventory has a relatively obvious seasonality, and most of them began to enter the warehouse in April. Inventories in the bonded area have not been updated, but it is understood that the current outflow is good, and the inventory in the area has declined. As can be seen from Figure 4.2, the current out-of-area inventory is still in a state of continuous increase, and the total amount is at a new high. In March, there is accelerated storage (tax reform and warehouse expansion). According to the above analysis, China’s natural rubber imports in the second quarter of this year. The same-ring ratio is expected to decline, while the downstream demand support is strong, and the probability of entering the de-library cycle will be high in April this year.

The inventory of the previous period was stable in the first quarter of this year. The current total is about 440,000 tons, which is equivalent to the same period of 2018. At present, China is gradually cutting, but it is still too early to process the new rubber batch processing. In addition, it should be noted that some of the 05 contract shorts are short. Closing the position, so the inventory of the previous contract delivery is expected to decline.

Five, market forecast and operation tips

1. Pay attention to the pressure of 05 contract warehouse receipts

Hujiao, which started in late March of this year, has to be said to be related to the 05 contract position. Due to the concentration of short positions in the hedging, and after the 09 contract became the main force, there has been no shifting action. The warehouse receipt pressure makes the 05 contract have Expectations of early return. In the past year, the return route of the 09 contract was often the spot for the discounted water and the rising of the distant moon. Therefore, in the down market in late March, the rapid return of the futures price to the spot and the widening of the 5-9 spread were also shown. At the end of March, Hujiao 1905’s spot basis of mixed rubber was once narrowed to around 200, plus the monthly spread of around 150, the actual 05 contract and spot price have returned, and the 5-9 spread has also been pulled from the previous 250 or so. Up to 350 or so.

At the beginning of April, the industry’s main hedging speed was speeded up, but it did not mean that the 05 contract was completely unstressed. The flat water spot still could not fully promote the downstream receiving willingness, and the price difference between May and September was only 350, and still It is difficult to cover the full position cost. If the 05 contract has a large number of warehouse receipts, there will still be some return pressure, and the current price difference is expected to narrow again. However, the above analysis shows that the spot is relatively strong in April, which will bring certain support to the disk. In operation, the current arbitrage can continue to be held. On the unilateral side, we are relatively optimistic about the spot price in the second quarter. The probability of going to the warehouse will bring about a price rebound, but the disk is uncertain, waiting for the 05 warehouse receipt to be resolved. Take action.

2. Interest in arbitrage between spot varieties

The spread between STR20 and SIR20 has a strong seasonality. However, due to the decline in Indonesia’s production last year, the spread between the two has not been opened. The current spread is also small, but in the second quarter, as Indonesia’s production continues to increase, Thailand faces drought or impact. Cutting, the spread between the two is expected to widen, you can buy STR20 to sell SIR20 operation.

In the second quarter of last year, the price difference between RSS3 and STR20 was large. However, the RSS3 import window was not opened last year, and the downstream demand was poor. As a result, the supply pressure of RSS3 was large, and the price difference was still small. Later, whether the fundamentals of the two were changed or not resulted in inter-species arbitrage opportunities.

In the second quarter of last year, Vietnam’s 3L increased the premium of the old whole milk. However, from the second half of last year to the first quarter of this year, the increase of Vietnam’s 3L import volume has not been able to increase its price. In the second quarter, whether the return of the Hujiao 05 contract will lead to the old The pressure of the whole milk increases, so that the price difference between the two is stronger, and you can buy Vietnam 3L to sell full latex arbitrage.

Translated by from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/48355.html

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