The decline in the domestic butadiene market is clearly recommended to be cautious


First, the price trend

This week, the domestic butadiene market fell significantly. The monitoring of the business community showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 8,973 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and the domestic butadiene price was 8,358 yuan/ton at the weekend. The weekly decline was 6.85%, and the price fell by 22.75% compared with the same period of last year.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated downwards, ’s supply price was lowered by 500 yuan / ton to 9,000 yuan / ton; Liaotong chemical auction reserve price was 7110 yuan / ton, auction reserve price was 7,000 yuan / ton, compared Weekly adjustment of 800-900 yuan / ton. During the week, continued to export large quantities, the market supply was abundant and the downstream demand was sluggish, resulting in poor sales of the manufacturers, and the prices continued to be under pressure. And the continued decline in the market has aggravated the downstream bearish expectations, and the market fell during the cycle, dragging the butadiene market down. In the middle and late period of the week, the manufacturers slightly lower the price to stimulate the downstream part to buy on dips, the market trading improved, and the increase in the freight rate of the northeast supply on Thursday increased, boosting the middlemen’s offer to follow up. The price sent to Shandong is 8,000-8100 yuan/ton; the reference of East is 8300-8400 yuan/ton, which is about 500 yuan/ton lower than last week. The short-term market turned to the upside, and most of the downstream businesses were still cautious, and the actual follow-up situation remains to be seen.

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Industry chain: styrene-butadiene rubber: domestic styrene-butadiene is showing a weak operation, but the butadiene outer disk is weak, etc., which is still restraining the mentality of the industry. At the same time, the demand is weak and there is also a restraint. The industry offers more around the factory, but the excessive low price is weakened. The transaction is flat. Butadiene rubber: The domestic butadiene is weak and stable. Merchants offer at the ex-factory price, the atmosphere of the inquiry is still light, the spot transaction volume is not much, some of the goods are sold at the ex-factory price, and the sporadic supply price is slightly upside down. SBS: The domestic SBS market is running at a low level of and rubber, and the dry rubber is arranged in a narrow range.

Third, the market outlook

Downstream staged demand, and some bargain hunting boosted the northeast supply increase, and the market turned better. However, the inventory of East China is slow to digest and there are still cargoes to be replenished in the later period, and the northeast supply continues to be replenished to supplement the market. On the whole, the short-term market supply is difficult to sustain, and the downstream just needs to be boosted. The business of butadiene analysts expects that At the beginning of next week, the market will absorb the space of a small rebound this weekend. Then, under the influence of the increase in supply, there is no shortage of stocks to regain the decline. It is recommended to be cautious.

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