The Tokyo morning exchange RSS1909 contract opened at 195.4 yen, up 3.1 yen from the previous trading day. The TSR1910 contract opened at 174.1 yen, up 1.1 yen from the previous trading day. The USD/JPY exchange rate was around 112.044 in the morning.
Last weekend’s Tokyo rubber market, after a small correction in the previous trading day, the RSS far-month price contract once again came to the 193 yen line in the spot price and the support of the arbitrage short-covering in the Shanghai futures market. In the Shanghai rubber market, the April contract is about to fall, and the May contract will also become the month. From the change of positions, the arbitrage funds will continue to close the short positions in the futures market, and there will be some outflows in the spot market. In particular, the price of the September contract in Shanghai during the weekend was once at 12,115 yuan. The previous lows have caused signs that the market may break through in the short-term. However, from the change in time-sharing positions, it is seen that trading in the late trading session is relatively high. The loose time price rush is accompanied by a significant reduction in positions, that is, short positions are being replenished. Limited by the overall position, the possibility of a rising trend in the medium and long term is small. The Tokyo rubber market was relatively quiet on weekends, mainly supported by the rise in the US dollar against the yen, and rose slightly.
In terms of spot, the April FOB price of No. 3 tobacco on April 12 was around 55.78 baht, down by 0.09 baht from the previous trading day. The No. 20 standard rubber FOB price in April was around 49.31 baht, down 0.25 baht from the previous trading day. The USS spot price was around 48 baht, down 1 baht from the previous trading day.
Technically, the RSS far-month contract price has formed a shock range for the short-term conversion line and the medium-term baseline (188-193 yen). And the transition line and the lower limit of the cloud layer overlap, indicating that there is strong support near the price point. The upper limit of the cloud above the medium-term baseline is at the position of 197 yen. Once the price breaks through the baseline, the price may be touched by the short-term short-term stop loss.
The spread between the 1909 month contract and the Shanghai 1909 month contract (Tokyo-Shanghai) at the close of Tokyo on April 12 was $-50/ton.
Last week, the price of RSS far-month contract in the Tokyo rubber market once again reached the 190 yen line when the production period of the major rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia was about to come to an end. At the same time, although the trading volume of the TSR market is small, due to the influence of the Singapore SGX market, the recent month’s price is the mainstay. With the narrowing of the near-month monthly price difference, the Tokyo rubber market has been injected with a booster.
Let’s take a closer look at the main factors that influenced the price changes in the Tokyo rubber market last week. Thailand’s National Day holiday is close to the Songkran Festival, plus the Chinese market has a clear vacation, and the spot market has a small supply of quotations. The rubber futures price has a good performance after the market opened last week. Before we talked about the fact that China’s production areas are the first to cut in Southeast Asia, Shanghai rubber futures prices have been weak after April, which has dragged down the trend of the Tokyo market. However, due to the recent major accidents in the chemical industry, the local government of China has vigorously rectified the chemical industrial park. The chemical products in the Shanghai futures market rose sharply earlier last week. The main contract of Shanghai rubber also broke through the integer of 12,000 yuan at the daily high. Change the weak market since March. Another noteworthy last week was that under the background of the frequent spread of Sino-US trade negotiations, the operating rate of China’s tire factories has increased. At the same time, due to insufficient stocking before and after the Spring Festival, some rubber varieties have experienced certain supply and demand tensions in the short term. The key factors for the recent SGX and Tokyo TSR prices have risen in recent months.
On the macroeconomic side, the China producer price index released last March rebounded from the same period of last year and met market expectations, indicating that there is a positive signal for industrial product prices in a series of government tax cuts and economic stimulus policies. To a certain extent, it also benefits the price of rubber as the main raw material for tires. At the same time, the United States began to impose tariffs on imports from the EU on the weekend. Although it is out of protection for the domestic aviation industry, the United States cannot start from the perspective of two-line operations. The inference of the staged results of Sino-US trade negotiations is unquestionable. However, after the sale of Lido, the market will face a fall, especially after May, the main producing areas of Southeast Asia will be cut, the old stocks have not been able to digest and face new listings. In the medium term, they are still looking for suitable price highs. The idea of shorting is mainly.
Last week’s change in positions, Tokyo’s overall position of the RSS re-stabilization, on the one hand, short-term price changes into a more stable price range, after the Songkran Festival in Thailand, the stock holdings may enter the market. Position and position increase and price changes are easy to form a medium- and long-term market in technology, and more attention should be paid to the recent changes in positions.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/48453.html