Shanghai Futures Exchange natural rubber (11700, -240.00, -2.01%) 1909 contract rose 65 yuan / ton on April 12, closing at 11,950 yuan / ton, daily turnover reached 365,198 hands, an increase of 26,540 over the previous trading day Hand, the position is 394,090 hands, an increase of 2,236 hands, of which the top 20 holdings of the number of buyers are 102,505 hands, an increase of 844 hands compared with the previous trading day, the top 20 short-selling orders of 134,790 hands, an increase of 2086 hands. New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures prices rose; Japan’s Tokyo Commodity Exchange RSS3 main contract closed at 192.3 yen / kg on April 12, up 0.4 yen / kg from the previous trading day; April 12 last period of natural rubber stocks Futures were 424,480 tons, an increase of 10 tons from the previous trading day.
From a fundamental point of view, the domestic production areas have been fully opened, and the supply in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan is still tight. Although there has been rain in recent days, the output has been limited. The domestic tire manufacturers have started to maintain high levels, and the inventory is basically at a reasonable level, but the market operation Still biased to the plain, semi-steel tires are slightly better than all steel tires, and the inventory of agents in the market has increased. From a technical point of view, the volume and position of the main contract RU1909 increased; the MACD red column was enlarged; its position in the trend channel fluctuated slightly near the center line of the channel, and the downward trend of the channel slowed down. According to data released by the China Automobile Association on April 12, the production and sales of domestic passenger vehicles in March were 2.09 million and 2.019 million respectively, down 5% and 6.9% respectively over the same period of last year, and the decline was significantly narrowed. According to central bank data, China’s new RMB loans increased by 1.69 billion yuan in March. The monthly social growth scale was 2.86 billion yuan, a sharp rebound from the previous value. In March, M2 money supply increased by 8.6% year-on-year, a 13-month high. On the whole, the output of the whole natural rubber is still slowly increasing, and the tire enterprises are starting to maintain a high level. However, the increase in terminal demand has slowed down its further improvement. The domestic auto market is still in a downturn, but the decline has begun to narrow, and the supply and demand of natural rubber in the near future. The pattern has not changed much; the recent purchase price of raw materials in Thailand’s Hat Yai market is stable, and the cost of natural rubber is stable. It is expected that the price of natural rubber will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and there may be a slight rebound during the day.
Operation strategy, RU1909 is held in the early stage, and those who are not holding positions temporarily wait and see. The above focus is 12,100 yuan / ton, and the lower level is 11,850 yuan / ton.