International Rubber Daily Review: Self-discipline rebound after a sharp decline


The Tokyo morning exchange RSS1909 contract opened at 189.8 yen, up 1.3 yen from the previous trading day. The 1910 contract opened at 169 yen, unchanged from the previous trading day. The USD/JPY exchange rate was around 111.91 in the morning.

Last weekend’s Tokyo market rebounded self-discipline after a sharp decline in the previous trading day. After the RSS long-term contract was short-term support around 186 yen, it was once close to 190 in the short-term air-based replenishment. The yen is an integer. Since this Monday is the last trading day of Tokyo RSS’s recent April contract, and the new contract October contract is listed on Tuesday, both long and short sides are reluctant to make more entanglement in the September contract, and finally close around 189.0 yen. Against the background of the previously announced first-quarter GDP and good industrial output in March, the politic bureau of the Chinese Communist Party issued a statement on strengthening the proactive fiscal policy and maintaining a sound financial policy on the weekend, indicating that there will be no reduction in bank reserves in the short term. Rate adjustments such as monetary policy. Shanghai’s main night September contract is also a short-covering market for the day, and the 11,500 yuan line has begun to show no small pressure.

In terms of spot, the April FOB price of No. 3 tobacco on April 18 was around 55.47 baht, down 0.35 baht from the previous trading day. The No. 20 standard rubber FOB price in April was around 49.56 baht, down 0.27 baht from the previous trading day. The USS spot price was around 48 baht, down 1 baht from the previous trading day.

Technically, the price of the RSS far-month contract rebounded after breaking through the cloud. In the absence of new materials in both and the macroeconomic environment, the RSS far-month contract may have a short-term oscillation near the 189-190 yen range. The short-term conversion line and the medium-term baseline will also be entangled for some time, and it is expected that the price will fall again after the long-term holiday in the Tokyo market. The trading strategy to maintain the rallies of the short-selling ideas unchanged, can wait until Tuesday to short the new listing of the October contract.

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The spread between the 1909 month contract and the Shanghai 1909 month contract (Tokyo-Shanghai) at the close of Tokyo on April 19 was US$-27/ton.

Weekly review

Last week, under the influence of the fall in the spot market price after the in Thailand, the price of RSS far-month contract in the Tokyo fell sharply. At the same time, although the near-month contract in the TSR market maintains a high position, which is a big discount to the far-month contract, the market’s optimistic expectation of a late production recovery has weighed on the far-month contract price, even in the context of China’s economic indicators rising, Tokyo. The in Shanghai and Shanghai are still in a downturn.

Let’s take a closer look at the main factors that influenced the price changes in the Tokyo rubber market last week. After the Songkran Festival in Thailand last week, the spot market price resumed trading, and the spot price fell slightly, which caused the market to increase the expected output after the end of the production cut in May. At the same time, the arbitrage funds in the Shanghai market will take a temporary wait-and-see situation after shifting the near-month contract to the main contract. With the support of losing the short-selling replenishment, the rubber producer’s hedging orders will enter the market, and the main September contract price will fall. After breaking the key points of 11,500, it fell sharply. The Tokyo far-month price also fell to a weekly low near 186 yen due to the impact of more than one stop loss in the vicinity of 188 yen. Looking at the decline in last week, there is not much bad material in the market. Instead, it is near the market adjustment of speculative funds at the end of the month. Therefore, may not fall much in the morning, and the market is waiting for new contracts to be listed on Tuesday. The wait-and-see atmosphere is heavier.

The macroeconomic aspects announced last week that a series of China’s economic indicators were higher than expected did not bring much benefit to the rubber market. After the chemical industry’s commodities fell back, the Chinese central bank still did not take further financial after entering April. The easing policy expressed disappointment. Although the US first quarter GDP will be released this week, Tokyo will be closed to the market for 10 consecutive holidays next week. Even if the strong result brings the dollar to the yen exchange rate, it will be able to digest Tokyo rubber in the first week of May. How much impact the market has, with unknowns too large. Shanghai market inventory increased by 2,000 tons last week to 440,000 tons. After May, it will face new rubber listings. In the medium term, the idea of ​​maintaining rallies will remain unchanged.

Finally, let’s take a look at the changes in positions in the market.

Last week’s change in positions, with the decline in prices, Tokyo RSS overall positions significantly reduced positions, especially when the price fell below the key support of 188 yen, the overall position has been close to 12,000 hands, the market is more profitable to understand the trend obvious. On the one hand, before the end of the month near the end of the Tokyo market, if the position can be increased in combination with the new contract, then the main price range this week is likely to become the main cost of the short position after the production cut, which will have a key impact on the future medium-term price.

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