1． Market Price
Natural Rubber Spot Market Price
On September 12, SCI NR price index closed at 481.76. The anticipated bullish factors came true this week. However, without support from the fundamentals, the price dropped. Vehicle sales and production still performed weakly. With a lack of effective bullish factors, the price will likely fall from a high level after the festivals end.
This week, NR futures price on the SHFE and TSR20 futures price on the INE first rose and then dropped. Bulls entered the market, took profits and exited, which caused the price to fall from a high level. The strong supply and the weak demand also prevented the price from bounding back greatly. With the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day celebrations, the operating rate at downstream tire producers may be affected, and they would show weak interest in purchasing feedstock.
As of September 12, the weekly average price of RU2001 was RMB 11,994/mt, up RMB 60/mt or 0.50% from last week. The weekly average price of NR2002 was RMB 10,218/mt, up RMB 28/mt or 0.27% from last week.
3. Market Forecast
Next week, NR futures price on the SHFE is expected to fluctuate at a low level. As for the fundamentals, the supply shortage caused by the typhoon has already ended. In the coming weeks, the supply both in Chinese and foreign producing areas will be stable, and the market is expecting the supply growth. However, the demand is still weak. Besides, to ensure a clear environment for the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day celebration, some producers may be forced to suspend their production. In addition, due to the destocking by some state-owned enterprises, the interest in feedstock replenishment will be depressed. Therefore, the conflicts between demand and supply may be enlarged in the future. Therefore, the market price will fluctuate. Market players should avoid the risk of price dropping.