Rubber rebound is hindered, showing a downward pace


Disk situation: RU2001 reduced the volume and shortened the price. The day closed at 11885, compared with the previous trading day -1%; trading volume 312826, positions 322026, -20084; basis -785, -20; Ru1-5 month spread -165, -45. Nr2002 closed at 10040 on the same day, compared with -0.3% on the previous trading day; trading volume 5722, positions 29336, -218; basis -554, +28; nr2-5 spread -225, -35.

News: 1. Côte d’Ivoire’s export volume of natural rubber increased by 8% from January to September. 2. Thailand’s natural rubber exports continued to decline in September. 3. According to Longzhong information statistics, this week’s semi-steel started 67.4%, up 0.52% from the previous month and up 1.10% year-on-year; all steel started at 67.70%, up 1.89% from the previous month and down 6.30% from the same period last year.

Market price: Shanghai market 18-year state-owned whole milk (cloud elephant) quoted at 11100 (-150) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L offer 11150 (-200) yuan / ton; Thailand No. 3 tobacco sheet 13800 (-200) yuan / ton Yunnan 19 years of full latex 11200 (+50) yuan / ton.

Thailand’s Hat Yai raw materials market 37.3 (-0.05) baht / kg; Thai three smoke tablets 39.49 (+0) baht / kg; field glue 37.9 (+0.2) baht / kg; 31.75 (+0) baht / kg. SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase 1340 (+0) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Bonded Area warehouse warehouse price increase 1330 (+0) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Bonded Area warehouse warehouse price increase 1345 (+0) US dollars / ton.  rubber: The market price of styrene- rubber 1502 in Co., Ltd. in East China is 10,400 (+0) yuan/ton; the market price of rubber is 10,900 (+0) yuan/ton.

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Warehouse receipt : ru warehouse receipts 415,400 tons, -1990 tons; nr warehouse receipts 0 tons

Main positions: ru2001 top 20 long positions 72,988,-7,796; short positions 107,343, -1,926. Both long and short are reduced, and the clearance is increased.

At present, the production areas at home and abroad are in the rubber cutting period, and the supply in Southeast Asia has increased significantly. A major rubber planting area in Thailand has been attacked by fungal diseases. However, according to industry research, local production accounts for a small proportion of total production in Thailand, so the substantive impact is limited, but Pay attention to the spread of late fungal diseases. Recently, the start of Shandong tire enterprises was constrained by the environmental protection supervision in the autumn and winter seasons, and the operating rate of all steel tires declined slightly. In the terminal market, car sales entered the off-season after October, and the demand growth in the terminal market was limited.

Technically, the rubber 2001 main contract, on the daily line, the opportunity for rubber to rebound again did not get a certain continuity, the upward pace was suppressed by the 12000 mark, and then showed signs of falling back. At present, the bulls are short-lived. Departing, and the current short-term strength is more obvious, it is recommended to try to intervene in the short-term within 12,000.

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