Weekly Summary: RU2001 Price Failed to Reach RMB 13,000/mt (Nov 22 – Nov 28)

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1 Market Price

NR Weekly Average Price

SHFE

dominant contract RU2001

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(unit: /mt)

INE

dominant contract

NR2002

(unit:RMB/mt)

TOCOM

(unit: yen/kg)

Nov 15-

Nov 21

12,253.00

10,486.00

183.94

Nov 22-

Nov 28

12,598.00

10,843.00

187.92

Change

+345.00

+357.00

+3.98

Change rate

+2.82%

+3.40%

+2.16%

Rubber Spot Market Price

China Mainstream Market NR Weekly Average Price

(unit: RMB/mt)

Market

Shanghai

Shandong

Grade

SCRWF

SVR 3L

3

STR 20  mixed

SCR10

Nov 15-

Nov 21

11,500

11,610

14,285

11,225

11,190

Nov 22-

Nov 28

11,950

11,970

14,510

11,590

11,460

Change

+450

+360

+225

+365

+270

Change rate

+3.91%

+3.10%

+1.58%

+3.25%

+2.41%

2. Market Review

From November 22 to November 28, SCI’s NR Price Index moved up. As of November 28, the price reached 520.87, up 1.21 or 0.23% from November 21. With the intense outflow of capital, the dropped from a high price level. From the perspective of fundamentals, both bullish and bearish factors were lacked, and a stalemate emerged. Both bulls and bears might feel indecisive. Thus, it’s predicted that the market will fluctuate weakly in the short term.

This week, the NR futures price on the SHFE failed to reach RMB 13,000/mt and then dropped. The price drop was attributed to exiting the market. With the outflow of bullish ’ capital, the rubber price had stopped rising and started to move downwards.

As of November 28, the weekly average price of RU2001 was RMB 12,598/mt, up RMB 345/mt or 2.82% from last week. The weekly average price of NR2003 was RMB 10,843/mt, up RMB 357/mt or 3.40% from last week.

3. Market Forecast

This week, NR futures price on the SHFE first surged and then dropped sharply due to outflow of capital. As the investors exited, the NR market fluctuated downwards. From the perspective of fundamentals, there was still no substantially bullish or bearish factor. The demand was still low in the downstream industries, and the was ample. However, the rubber had already stopped in some producing areas and the rainfall continued in South Thailand. Both the rubber output and export volumes are expected to drop in 2019. All in all, the will be fluctuating weakly in the short term.

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