The Tokyo morning RSS2005 contract opened at 197.8 yen, down 0.2 yen from the previous trading day. The TSR2006 contract opened at 149.1 yen, which was unchanged from the previous trading day. The dollar-yen exchange rate was near 108.745 in the morning.
Yesterday’s Tokyo rubber market was driven by the Shanghai market’s rise of 3%. The far-month contract broke the previous high near 190 yen and triggered the stop loss of the short order. The price directly tried to break to the 200 yen integer. Finally, After hitting an intraday high of 198 yen, it closed down slightly. Due to the upward breakthrough after nearly two weeks of sideways consolidation, the rubber market as a whole shows a strong upward trend. However, this rise is still driven by funds, and the market lacks sufficient bullish material support. In terms of macroeconomics, the possibility of long-term trade negotiations between China and the United States is relatively large, and the results of the US employment statistics in November have also received greater attention from the market. There is no significant price fluctuation in the external market. In terms of origin, Southeast Asia ’s main producing areas are at a time of high production. After the futures prices have risen, suppliers have raised their spot quotes. The current arbitrage window has not opened enough space, and speculative colors have been more serious in terms of price fluctuations.
On the spot, the November FOB price of tobacco on November 3 was around THB 47.13, which was 0.23 THB lower than the previous trading day. The November FOB price of No. 20 standard rubber is around 42.2 baht, which is 0.07 baht lower than the previous trading day. The USS spot price was around THB 38.5, up by THB 0.21 from the previous trading day.
From a technical point of view, the RSS Tokyo Far Moon price broke through the previous high near 190 yen, which led to a larger short stop loss. From the previous position change, we can know that the new price is around 189 yen There are many short warehouse receipts, and the centralized stop loss has caused Tokyo’s far-month price to show a larger premium compared to Shanghai’s main contract. Due to the recent volatility of the Shanghai rubber market and heavy speculation, it is recommended to wait and see.
At the close of Tokyo on December 5, the spread between the 2005 and Shanghai 2005 contracts (Tokyo-Shanghai) was -58 USD / ton.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/52015.html