I. Synthetic rubber market trend
In 2019, butadiene rubber mainly showed a volatile trend
In 2019, butadiene rubber mainly showed a volatile trend. Taking August as a watershed, before August, the price fluctuated in a narrow range; after August, the butadiene rubber formed a trend of rising and then falling sharply. In 2019, the high price of butadiene rubber appeared at 12900 yuan / ton on September 27, and the low price appeared at 10450 yuan / ton on July 18. The breakdown can be roughly divided into 6 stages.
In the first stage, before March 2019, due to the scarce supply of the butadiene rubber market around the Lunar New Year, traders are more willing to price, and the price is above 11,700 yuan / ton;
In the second stage, from the beginning of March to mid-April, as the petrochemical manufacturers resumed their operations, the market had sufficient supplies, and downstream operations were not as good as expected. The overall market performance exceeded supply and prices fell to around 11,000 yuan / ton;
The third stage, from mid-April to mid-June, on the one hand, raw material prices fluctuated up and down, and on the other hand, downstream operations began to gradually recover. The price of butadiene rubber maintained a slight fluctuation above 11200 yuan / ton;
In the fourth stage, from mid-June to the end of July, environmental inspections have become stricter. The operating rate of downstream tire and product factories has declined. In addition, the price of raw materials butadiene has fallen, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the upstream and downstream areas has increased. The price of butadiene rubber has fallen to 10500. Around RMB / ton;
In the fifth stage, from the end of July to mid-November, under the pressure of rising costs of crude oil and butadiene in the early stage, butadiene rubber rose rapidly to 12,900 yuan / ton all the way, and as the cost collapsed and the demand side continued to be insufficient, butadiene rubber All the way down sharply to 10,725 yuan / ton, forming a sharp rise and fall coaster situation;
The sixth stage is from mid-November to the end of November. On the one hand, the price of natural rubber has risen, which has driven the bullish atmosphere of synthetic rubber. On the other hand, market traders have low inventory and strong willingness to price, and the price of butadiene rubber has risen slightly.
On the whole, except for the impact of unexpected events in the third quarter of 2019, the price of butadiene rubber has risen and fallen sharply throughout the year, and it has been in a weak and volatile state due to weak demand throughout the year.
In 2019, the styrene-butadiene rubber market showed a downward trend and then an upward trend. At the end of the year, it fell slightly by 2.5% compared with the beginning of the year.
In the first seven months of 2019, the domestic styrene-butadiene rubber price has been on a downward trend, from 12,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to the lowest point in July of 10112 yuan / ton. The main reasons are as follows:
First of all, butadiene fell all the way in the first half of the year, and the cost was under pressure from styrene-butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene price fell from 9,836 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to around 7812 yuan / ton at the end of April. Secondly, the cost of raw materials has been greatly reduced, and the styrene-butadiene production enterprises have a high operating rate driven by profits. The market supply is sufficient and the price of styrene-butadiene rubber has been suppressed. Finally, the start-up of downstream companies was slow to resume at the beginning of the year. In April and May, they encountered policies such as production and electricity restrictions and strict environmental protection. The downstream tire plant operating rate continued to decline, and downstream procurement continued to be weak in the first half of the year, which formed a big negative for SBR. .
From the beginning of August to the end of December, the price of domestic styrene-butadiene rubber fluctuated from 10400 yuan / ton in early August to around 11,700 yuan / ton at the end of the year. On the one hand, from early August to early November, styrene-butadiene rubber rose sharply due to the impact of cost. In the early stage, mainly due to the impact of the crude black swan incident and the decline in butadiene production, the prices of crude oil and raw material butadiene have been rising all the way, and the cost has driven the styrene-butadiene rubber up; On the other hand, the downstream, especially the tire factory, has a relatively high operating rate in the second half of the year, and the demand for rubber is relatively strong, which has supported the price of rubber to a certain extent.
Second, the price trend of raw materials
According to the monitoring of the business agency data, butadiene prices fluctuated and adjusted in 2019, generally falling in the first half of the year, and rising and falling in the second half of the year. According to business agency monitoring, butadiene prices fell from 9,836 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to around 7812 yuan / ton at the end of April. Later, with the increase in the price of external disks and the maintenance of manufacturers’ equipment, the supply of butadiene decreased, and the price gradually increased to August. After the impact of the crude oil “black swan” incident in the later September and October, the price quickly rose to the year The highest point is around 11845 yuan / ton. Later, on the one hand, the hype was released, on the other hand, the high price led to the purchase list, and then gradually fell back to around 8300 yuan / ton at the end of the year. On the whole, the price trend of raw material butadiene is basically synchronized with that of synthetic rubber, and the impact from the industrial chain is relatively close.
According to the monitoring of the business agency data, the price of styrene has adjusted in a volatile manner in 2019, generally rising first and then falling. As of December 20, the average price quoted by styrene companies was 7450.00 yuan / ton, which was a sharp decrease, or a decrease of 7.64%, compared with the styrene price of 806.667 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2019 (January 1). In general, 2019 is a year of strong styrene supply and demand. Although the price has fallen all the way compared to 2018, the industry profit of styrene is still good throughout the year, and the industry’s cash flow is better.
Support for downstream tire demand
As of November 2019, domestic rubber tire tire production was 72.467 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; from January to November, domestic rubber tire tire output was 76.696 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. On the whole, the year-on-year growth rate of production in the first half of the year was negative, and the year-on-year growth rate of production in the second half of the year gradually rebounded to more than 2%. From the perspective of the demand for the support of synthetic rubber, the support was weak in the first half of the year and slightly stronger in the second half.
Fourth, market outlook
The trend of synthetic rubber in 2020 has three highlights: 1. The impact of Sino-US trade frictions. At present, there are signs of easing Sino-US trade frictions, which are relatively favorable for the export of late-stage tires and other rubber products. The downstream rubber industry starts and consumes a certain degree of negative impact; the trend of the secondary raw materials butadiene, styrene, and upstream crude oil has affected the price. In 2010, when the raw material market was not limited in production or maintenance, the price was basically in a volatile range. The impact on the price of synthetic rubber also belongs to the range; the impact of the start of the three synthetic rubber manufacturers. On the one hand, the domestic styrene-butadiene rubber production capacity has been excessive for the past two years. In addition, under the suppression of low demand, the overall plant operating rate has been below 60% for a long time. On the other hand, the production capacity of butadiene rubber has also reached 1.6 million tons, and the production capacity is almost in excess. Currently, only Zhenjiang Chimei has 40,000 tons / year and Shandong Shengxing has put into production plans. However, as it is still in the initial planning stage, it may be put into production in the next two years. The production capacity of synthetic rubber is basically stable in the later period, and the operating rate depends on market supply pressure and profit.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/52360.html