Lack of more support rubber callback continues


Market review: On December 24, rubber continued to fall. The Hujiao main 2005 contract closed at 10875 (10, 0.09%) yuan / ton, and closed at 12,705 yuan / ton at night. The position is 439,400 (0.62) lots, and the trading volume is 333,900 (1.38) lots. The main INE20 plastic 2003 contract closed at 10875 (10, 0.09%) yuan / ton, and closed at 10665 yuan / ton at night, with a position of 45590 (396) and a volume of 14856 (5290).

The price of glue rebounded slightly, and the price of Hat Yai glue was 40.15 (0.15) baht / kg. The price of U.S. dollar rubber is stable. The price of Thai natural rubber STR20 is US $ 1470 (0) / ton, the price of Malaysian natural rubber SMR20 is US $ 1460 (10) / ton and the price of Indonesian natural rubber SIR20 is 1455 (0). Domestic spot prices have risen. Yunnan’s full latex SCR5 is priced at 11,950 (100) yuan / ton in Shanghai, Thai three tobacco sheet RSS3 is priced at 14,300 (0) yuan / ton, and SVR3L in Shanghai is priced at 12,100 (0) yuan / ton.

Fundamentals Overview

I. Inventory

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Domestic decreased and warehouse receipts increased significantly. The inventory of the previous period was 22,38 (0.27) tons. In October, of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 582,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.38%. Cumulative from January to November were 6.3 million tons, a cumulative of 5.97% year-on-year. From January to July, ANRPC supply fell by 7.3% year-on-year, and increased slightly by 0.8% year-on-year.

Demand side

According to the data of the China Automobile Association, in November, the domestic automobile sales volume was 2.457 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.57% and a decrease of 3.56% year-on-year, and the decrease continued to narrow. The sales volume of passenger cars was 2.057 million units, a 6.71% month-on-month increase and a decrease 5.36%; 400,000 commercial vehicle sales, an increase of 12.2% month-on-month, and an increase of 6.8% year-on-year. In November, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 102,000, an increase of 11.66% month-on-month and an increase of 13.8% year-on-year.

Third, the message

Oil prices continued to rise. As of December 25, the closing price of the main oil futures contract on the was reported at 484.2 yuan / barrel (3.8, 0.79%); the closing price at night was reported at 485.2 yuan / barrel (1.0, 0.21%).

Operation recommendations

Rubber continues its downward , and the short-term market lacks theme support. The correction may continue. The rubber market is still under the expectation of a slow cattle increase supported by reduced production and weak seasonal supply. Affected by weather and fungal diseases, there is an 8% annual production reduction expectation for rubber. The main producing country is still threatened by fungal diseases. So far, the disease has affected 380,000 hectares in , 52,000 hectares in Thailand, and 5,000 hectares in . From the perspective of supply and demand, global supply is at a seasonal high. In December, China entered a cut-off period, and global supply will begin to fall in the first quarter. There is weak support for demand, and there is an expected recovery in downstream automobile sales before the . The automobile production and sales data released by the China Automobile Association in November strengthened expectations. November vehicle production rebounded month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow. On the whole, the rubber market is still under the logic of reducing production. Sino-U.S. Trade goodness gradually materializes, weakly supporting the rubber market, but the stage support is weakening, and the rubber market has callback pressure. In operation, more than just leave the field and wait and see.

Translated by Google Translator from


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