Weekly Summary: NR Futures Price Fluctuated between RMB 12,600/mt and RMB 12,900/mt (Dec 20 – Dec 26)

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1 Market Price

Futures Weekly Average Price

SHFE

dominant contract RU2005

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(unit: RMB/mt)

INE

dominant contract

NR2003

(unit:RMB/mt)

TOCOM

(unit: yen/kg)

Dec 13-

Dec 19

13,061.00

10,999.00

199.04

Dec 20-

Dec 26

12,792.00

10,780.00

196.62

Change

-269.00

-219.00

-2.42

Change rate

-2.06%

-1.99%

-1.22%

Spot Market Price

China Mainstream Market NR Weekly Average Price

(unit: RMB/mt)

Market

Shanghai

Shandong

Grade

SVR 3L

RSS 3

STR 20  mixed

SCR10

Dec 13-

Dec 19

12,210

12,385

14,660

11,895

11,850

Dec 20-

Dec 26

11,940

12,175

14,265

11,600

11,620

Change

-270

-210

-395

-295

-230

Change rate

-2.21%

-1.70%

-2.69%

-2.48%

-1.94%

2. Market Review

From December 20 to December 26, SCI’s NR Price Index dropped by 2.28 or 0.43% to 531.85. From the perspective of fundamentals, there was no obvious change in both supply and . As the Spring Festival Holiday was approaching, the continued to recover. The performed weakly. Influenced by the weather condition, the overall operating rate in the industries became unstable. The enterprises’ enthusiasm in purchase was depressed somewhat. With a lack of good news and high , the price will find it hard to rise further.

After the price drop last week, NR futures price on the SHFE was range-bound at a low level this week. RU2005 was fluctuating around RMB 12,800/mt. The early bullish factors were gone, and there was no new favorable factors. showed lukewarm attitudes towards the market. Thus, the fluctuated downwards.

As of December 26, the weekly average price of RU2005 was RMB 12,792/mt, down RMB 269/mt or 2.06% W-O-W. The weekly average price of NR2003 was RMB 10,780/mt, down RMB 219/mt or 1.99% W-O-W.

3. Market Forecast

This week, NR futures price on the SHFE was fluctuating in the range of RMB 12,600-12,900/mt. There was no significant news regarding the fundamentals. The rising of NR futures price would need support from changes in the fundamentals. The demand didn’t change much, which would affect the resistance line. However, as the price dropped, some downstream buyers were active in purchasing. Thailand is in high production season, and the supply of field latex increases. However, the rubber tapping will stop in Hainan and Vietnam in January, which will promote the price to rise. The basis between futures price and spot price and the inventory replenishment should be paid close attention to. The price drop will be limited.

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