2019 is a year in which the rubber additive industry is facing challenges. The increase in production and sales is a new low in recent years, and the profit margin has shrunk significantly. From the comprehensive analysis of this public account, there are mainly the following reasons:
1) The overall economic growth has slowed down, the demand of the transportation industry is weak, and the demand for tires has decreased;
2) Negative growth in automobile sales and reduced demand for tires;
3) Oil is at a relatively low level, and the price of raw materials related to additives has basically remained volatile;
4) Environmental protection has avoided the “one size fits all” approach, and the actual effective production capacity has increased compared with previous years;
5) The profit-making effect brought by the auxiliary industry in the past few years has led some manufacturers to expand production, and there are a few new entrants to the industry.
The upstream supply of auxiliaries is generally sufficient. Short-term fluctuations are the main factor in the price change of auxiliaries. The main raw materials are as follows:
Aniline : In the first half of 19, the price of aniline was basically stable, and the price of pure benzene, its upstream raw material, remained basically in sync. In September, due to the situation in the Middle East, a sudden divergence occurred. Subsequently, Jinling and other companies suspended production and maintenance, resulting in a wave of high-level operations Up to 8480 yuan / ton). As supply recovered in December, prices returned to cost pricing. Aniline is one of the most important raw materials for antioxidants and accelerators. It is often used to evaluate the cost change of rubber additives.
Acetone: In 19, the price of acetone was at a low level compared with that in 18 years, but since the lowest point in March 19, it has gradually increased. It is currently at a 19-year high. The price of acetone has a large impact on the cost of 4010NA and RD.
Sulfur: The economy is slowing down, the requirements for desulfurization in refining and chemical industry continue to increase, and the domestic sulfur is relatively surplus, which has led to a downward trend in sulfur prices throughout the year, which is basically close to the lowest price in history. Sulfur is the main raw material of accelerator M, insoluble sulfur and carbon disulfide.
Carbon disulfide: Similar to the trend of sulfur, affected by the price of sulfur and excess capacity, prices have been in a downward trend throughout the year, falling from 5,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 3,000 yuan / ton. Carbon disulfide is an important component of the cost of Accelerator M.
Tert-butylamine: Tert-butylamine was once a monopoly product of Yangba, and the price has been stable for many years. In June this year, due to the impact of competition and sluggish market demand, prices fell in a wave, and remained basically around 21,000 yuan / ton. Tert-butylamine is the main raw material of the accelerator TBBS.
Cyclohexylamine: Basically maintained a slight fluctuation throughout the year. It is the main raw material of CBS.
The specific types of auxiliary products are as follows:
Accelerators: Accelerators continued the slow downward trend since the beginning of 2018 throughout the year, and the profit margin was significantly compressed. Only in early September, under the influence of the situation in the Middle East and relatively strong demand, there was a brief rebound. At present, many accelerator products are approaching the edge of the cost line, and the space for further price reduction is quite limited. Despite the limited production of northern enterprises in winter, the overall capacity is still excessive. Next year will be a difficult year for promoter manufacturers, especially those with lower operating rates and higher debt ratios will face the first wave of survival after the environmental storm in the promoter sub-sector.
Antioxidants: The production capacity and competition pattern of p-phenylenediamine antioxidants (4020, 4010NA) have basically remained unchanged. In March, affected by the explosion in Xiangshui, some nitrobenzene manufacturers stopped production inspections, and a wave of panic purchases appeared in the market. As a result, the price of antioxidants rose around 2,000 yuan / ton. In other periods, it was basically stable, demand was flat, and prices fluctuated. Due to more sufficient competition in RD, prices have dropped. In the fourth quarter, the costs of aniline and acetone, the raw materials of RD, rose at the same time, which severely reduced the profit margin of RD. It is expected that the supply pattern of antioxidants will be basically stable next year, and prices will fluctuate at current levels.
Insoluble sulfur: The capacity of insoluble sulfur has been increasing, the production of Shengao, the expansion of Yanggu Huatai, and the sluggish market demand have led to a significant decline in the price of insoluble sulfur. At present, Shangshun still has expansion plans. Yanggu Huatai’s new capacity is not yet full. CITIC Huacheng, Dazhou, Sichuan, is about to start production. The competition pressure for insoluble sulfur will exceed 2019.
We tracked the theoretical cost and market price of each major additive, the relevant trends and the profit of the manufacturer are as follows:
Acid base accelerator M
Insoluble sulfur OT 20
Indirect zinc oxide 99.7%
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/52553.html