In 2019, China’s rubber and plastics industry market continues to be sluggish. Although there have been occasional improvements, the overall ups and downs have remained unchanged.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 2019 commodity price rise and fall list, there were 2 types of products that rose from the previous month, of which 1 was a type that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of monitored products in the sector; before the increase The products of 2 are natural rubber (11005, -45.00, -0.41%) (13.90%), PVC (6580, 40.00, 0.61%) (4.94%). There were a total of 14 types of products that fell month-on-month, and a total of 12 types of products with a decline of more than 5%, which accounted for 75% of the monitored products in this sector; the top 3 products were PC (-38.74%) and PA66 (-36.16%) , PA6 (-22.76%). The average increase or decrease this year was -13.77%.
Natural rubber: In the first half of the year, “disasters and hardships” in 2019, experienced droughts that were not encountered for many years, experienced strict inspections of the “mixed rubber” by the customs, and also encountered export reductions in three Southeast Asian countries and other rubber boosting measures. Rubber prices Rush high first, then fall back to shocks; in the second half of the year, the traditional consumption season of “Golden Nine, Silver and Ten” has boosted rubber prices. Due to the impact of tight production in Southeast Asia due to heavy rains and fungal diseases, the natural rubber market has improved somewhat. Cutting stimulus, prices stopped falling and rose strongly, pulling up strongly. After pulling up again in December, the price fluctuated and the price rose by about 12% throughout the year.
Synthetic rubber: In 2019, the domestic general synthetic rubber market fluctuated in the whole range, and was stronger in the second half than in the first half. From January to July, butadiene fell all the way, the cost of raw materials fell sharply. General synthetic rubber production companies have a high operating rate driven by profit, sufficient market supply, and downstream procurement continued to be weak, which weighed on prices. From the beginning of August to the end of December, the price of domestic general synthetic rubber fluctuated steadily. The impact of the fluctuations in the prices of crude oil and raw material butadiene increased in the second half of the year. The operating rate of tire factories was relatively good, and the demand for rubber was relatively strong, which supported the price of rubber to a certain extent.
2019 is a bumpy year for plastics. In addition to the slight increase in PVC throughout the year, plastic products were mainly green. Regardless of the turbulent changes in the external environment, the market is always in a downward trend. The reason is due to the further deepening of the imbalance between supply and demand. The competition in the industry is becoming increasingly fierce, and profits are squeezed. In addition, the intensity of environmental protection inspections has continued, and since the “blue sky defense war” was proposed in 2017, it has always had a negligible impact on the market. The intensity of environmental protection has increased year by year, which has led to the obstruction of production by terminal enterprises. All major varieties in the plastic market ushered in favorable conditions in September, but the rally was fleeting. In October, the quagmire was unable to extricate themselves. At present, it is difficult to reverse the tight supply and demand pattern in 2020. In addition to the large fluctuations that may occur during the maintenance season and downstream traditional procurement season, the overall trend may remain weak.
Key ups and downs: natural rubber, butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber
Natural rubber (+ 13.90%): Compared with the price of more than 40,000 a ton, the price of natural rubber has fallen by three-quarters, and the low price range is around 2,000 yuan / ton from 10,000 yuan / ton to 12,200 yuan / ton. Has been in shock for more than half a year. In 2019, the price of natural rubber as a whole surged three times: 12070 yuan / ton on March 4 was the first price high, 12020 on June 11 was the second price high, and 12290 yuan / ton on December 6 was the first Three times is also the highest price of the year so far; two downward troughs: 10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and early May is the first trough price, and 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and early August is the lowest price this year. Throughout 2019, the average price of the natural rubber whole milk (Treasure Island) market monitored by the business agency in East China rose 14.55% throughout the year. In 2020, the natural rubber market, based on the suppression of low prices for many years, is unlikely to fall in price, and the short-term holiday effect is obvious. Focus on sudden price changes caused by news stimulus and policy impact.
Butadiene rubber (-3.63%): In 2019, butadiene rubber showed a volatile trend. Taking August as a watershed, before August, the price fluctuated in a narrow range; after August, butadiene rubber formed a trend of roller coaster after rising first and then falling. The annual high price of butadiene rubber appeared at 12,900 yuan / ton on September 27, and the low price appeared at 10,450 yuan / ton on July 18. The annual increase or decrease was -3.63%.
Styrene butadiene rubber (-5.17%): The styrene butadiene rubber market in 2019 showed a downward trend and then an upward trend. In the first 7 months, the domestic styrene-butadiene rubber price has been on a downward trend, from 12,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to the lowest point of 10112 yuan / ton in July; the domestic styrene-butadiene rubber price fluctuated from early August to the end of December, from 10400 in early August The yuan / ton shock rose to around 11,700 yuan / ton at the end of the year. At the end of the year, it was down 5.17% from the beginning of the year.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/52595.html