According to Zhuochuang statistics, among the main raw materials of tires in 2019, only the average annual price of natural rubber has slightly increased compared to 2018, an increase of 3.84%. The other main raw materials of tires have generally declined compared to 2018, and most products The decline was more than 10%. What will happen to the tire raw material market in 2019, and how will it perform in the coming year?
Natural rubber: steady bottom in 2019, rising in 2020 or bottom
After a strong rebound in natural rubber from the second half of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, the price of natural rubber continued to fall for two years, and in 2019 it showed signs of rising after the bottom was confirmed. The low price of natural rubber during the year caused the concern of investment forces, coupled with the production reduction measures and export policies of major rubber producing countries, China ’s customs strictly inspected mixed rubber, and the rumors of production reduction caused by the outbreak of fungal diseases and insect pests in Southeast Asia caused the price of natural rubber to rise. In December, it hit a new high of 13,455 yuan / ton during the year, an increase of 31.52% from the lowest price during the year.
Driven by a proactive fiscal and stable currency in the Chinese market in 2020, the economy as a whole will still maintain a relatively high growth rate. In addition, at the end of 2020, 1 million diesel vehicles with a national emission of three or less will be required to be eliminated and updated. Therefore, we believe that in the first quarter of 2020, under the background of cut-off, prices will usher in a relatively high point, but natural rubber is a perennial crop. In 2020, it will still be in a heavy supply period, which will suppress the overall upward trend to a certain extent. Therefore, we expect that in 2020, the natural rubber futures main contract price operation range may be in the range of 1100-15000 yuan / ton, and the monthly average fluctuation range is mainly in the range of 1,200-14,000 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity may increase by about 8% year-on-year.
Large ethylene projects gradually land, butadiene continues to expand or drag on the trend of synthetic rubber
In 2019, two sets of 170,000-ton butadiene units in China’s Inner Mongolia Jiutai Energy and Nanjing Chengzhi Yongqing Energy were put into operation. The overall supply of the butadiene market was loose. In addition to the impact of low-cost sources outside the domestic market, the overall price of domestic butadiene showed Downtrend. With the substantial reduction in raw material costs, general synthetic rubber manufacturers have a high operating rate driven by profit, sufficient market supply, continued weak downstream procurement, and suppressing prices. In 2019, the average prices of styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber are higher than in 2018. Significant decline, with a decline of more than 10%.
Looking forward to 2020, 2020 will be the most concentrated year for the commissioning of new butadiene plants. Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hengli Refining, Panjin Polaris, Yantai Wanhua, Sinochem Quanzhou, Sinochem Refining and Chemical, Sino-Korea Ethylene A total of 780,000 tons of butadiene units such as expansions have been put into operation, and most of these butadiene units are equipped with large ethylene. Except for routine maintenance, the start-up situation will not decline significantly. The overall start-up level is theoretically higher than downstream Industry start-up level. In this way, in the future, the domestic market of butadiene will be in a significant surplus, and the loose supply situation will gradually become apparent, while the downstream supporting follow-up is relatively slow, but the market for butadiene is still in a weak operating cycle, or it will The price trend of synthetic rubber has become a drag. We estimate that the annual price of general synthetic rubber in 2020 will be in the range of 9,000-12,000 yuan / ton, and the average price may decline 4-5 percentage points from 2019.
Raw material decline and excess capacity, it is difficult for bargaining power of auxiliary materials to rise
Against the background of the decline in chemical raw materials and the less optimistic performance of the tire market, the overall price of tire auxiliary materials such as rubber additives and carbon black has fallen in 2019, and the average price in 2019 has fallen by more than 10% compared to 2018. In particular, due to the prominent contradiction of excess capacity after the release of new capacity, the phenomenon of low-price shipments to seize market share, and so on, the bargaining power has obviously weakened.
Looking forward to 2020, in the context of trade friction, downstream tires often choose to expand production capacity overseas. Domestic tires continue to have limited growth space. In addition, the overcapacity of tire auxiliary products is difficult to change in the short term. Therefore, we expect that products such as carbon black, zinc oxide, antioxidants, and accelerators may still show low fluctuations, and the average annual price may still have a slight fall from 2019.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/52662.html