The new crown pneumonia epidemic continued to spread during the Spring Festival holiday, which triggered the “butterfly effect”. The CBOE volatility index, known as the panic index abroad, soared to a new high in three months. It can be seen that during the Spring Festival holiday, the price of Japanese rubber futures was mainly down, from 191 yen / kg to 177 yen / kg, a cumulative decline of more than 7%. In addition, international crude oil prices and several major foreign stock indexes have also fallen. The accumulation of negative factors led to the return of China’s commodity market after the holiday, and the Shanghai Jiao Futures 2005 contract closed at the limit. However, with the release of negative sentiment, the price of rubber has started to fall and rebounded. It has climbed to the range of 11390-11535 yuan / ton yesterday, but it has not completely covered the previous gap.
In terms of supply and demand, Southeast Asia’s production areas have gradually stopped cutting since January, and the world has entered a low-yield period. The prices of raw materials in the production areas have remained firm and have supported the price of rubber. Domestic production areas have stopped cutting since the end of last year, and domestic rubber imports have continued to weaken.
In terms of inventory, rubber stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to low levels in recent years, and inventory pressure has greatly reduced. The No. 20 rubber warehouse receipt has steadily increased, focusing on the delivery of the first batch of contracts.
On the demand side, during the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of domestic automobile tire factories fell to a low level during the year. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the post-holiday recovery time will be delayed, and transportation and logistics will be severely affected. Domestic car sales improved in December, but fell throughout the year, dealer inventory pressure is still under pressure, and sales will decline sharply in January and February in the new year.
On the whole, after entering February, the supply side has entered a seasonally tight state due to the suspension of production in the production area, but the demand side has fallen sharply due to the impact of the epidemic. Pay attention to the recovery of the market outlook.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/53188.html