The main theme of the internal reference round table is to pay attention to the rubber market. After the holiday, rubber, like many varieties, once closed its limit and then started a continuous rebound. What are the highlights of the rubber market in the future? What are the recommendations for trading rubber futures? With the issue of the internal reference, invited Haitong Futures Researcher Han Yunyu, Guotai Junan Futures Researcher Gao Linlin, Huaan Futures Researcher Zhang Yangyang, and Galaxy Futures Researcher Pan Shengjie, who will explain the fundamentals of rubber for everyone.
Bulk internal reference: What is the main logic of rubber price operation after the holiday?
Han Yuyu: After the opening of the festival, Hujiao fell, so one of the reasons is well known is the emotional fermentation of the epidemic. During the Spring Festival, the domestic market did not open, and the outer disk fell by about 7%, so the domestic market made a fall. At that time, we gave the market a point of view: the limit is a high probability, the main basis is that under the influence of the epidemic, speculative long flight is a high probability, this is one of them. Second, the main short positions in the rubber disk are still concentrated in the hands of upstream producers and midstream traders. Then, under the circumstance that the overall downstream construction is limited and the logistics is not smooth, the pressure of traders to unwind positions is huge and the spot positions are uneven. The probability of its hedging plate will be crushed to the plate, large-scale shorts will not be able to come out, and longs will not be able to enter. This is why the Shanghai rubber was crushed to the limit.
Let’s talk about why the Dayang appeared on the second day after the market opened. Before the holiday we also gave our price point of around 11200. The reason why this price is given is mainly based on the historical basis when the mood is poor and the absolute price, such as last year’s 09 contract delivery period, the inventory caused by the market sentiment fell, the spot absolute price is around 10800; refer to the pre-section The basis price is roughly discounted to 500-550 yuan for the 05 contract. If the first day of the daily limit falls, then if the pre-holiday basis is extended, the absolute spot price is about 10650, which has fallen below the cost of some manufacturers, and if it is below , The disk receiving power will be formed.
The main reasons are as follows:
1, the spot is not in circulation, downstream companies can pick up the goods on the plate, because the market spot is the old plastic, the plate is the delivery glue, if the plate is received, the later period can be thrown to the September contract, the operable space is large, the part can be transferred risk.
2. On the first day after the holiday, the basis difference shrank to about 200. In February, when the price of goods is converted to May, there is also a cost of about 200. It is better to take the spot than to sell the goods; and the pressure of establishing virtual inventory on the plate is small, and the delivery risk is low.
3. Delayed start time, insufficient market instantaneous demand, and the downstream factory’s stocking situation before the holiday is good. There is no large demand for spot use in the short term, and the possibility of disk operation increases.
The power of receiving goods has been increasing with the decline in prices, so we judged that the low may be around 11,200. After that, the lowest closing price of Hujiao is 11040, and it has been going up all the way, which basically verified our previous point of view.
Gao Linlin: At present, the epidemic situation in regions other than Hubei has entered a relatively stable and controllable stage. We define this stage as the “post-epidemic” stage. The main market characteristics currently present are: gradual recovery of resumption of production and resumption, logistics and transportation restrictions, accumulation of inventory, and relatively gentle repair of the disk. We believe that the long and short logic presented by Tianjiao during the “post-epidemic” stage is: buying expectations and selling reality. “Buy expectations” include: low front and high back, and the promotion of automobile consumption policies in the later period will increase expectations. After the tire company’s resumption of work and replenishment, it is expected that the weather will be affected, seasonal off-season or early arrival, and the lack of spring defense work will affect the expectations of subsequent cuts. Although in general: the momentum of buying “expected” is stronger, but the reality is that the port inventory is accumulated, the logistics and transportation are limited, and the short-term recovery capacity is limited, which will suppress the space for repairs.
Zhang Yangyang: The epidemic has delayed the release of demand, and the policy is expected to dominate the recent rubber vacancy situation. After the holiday, the price of rubber was affected by the epidemic, and panic spread. After two limit stops, the price hit the “policy bottom” 10280. The rebound rebounded. The central bank continuously released liquidity and continuously lowered MLF and LPR interest rates. The market took care of the capital market. The will is strong. As of February 20th, the main force of Hujiao closed at 11,690 points, still down 3.3% from the previous year, and there is still a gap of 300 points above it. The recent countercyclical policies are favorable. After the Foshan auto purchase discount, the State Council considered cars Consumption stimulus measures and better policy expectations lead to short-term price corrections.
Pan Shengjie: The impact of the epidemic on rubber consumption is relatively comprehensive: the average monthly operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories in January was 46%, while it was only 18% in February, which was significantly lower than the normal level in the same period. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday in previous years was at most 2 weeks, but this year’s shutdown has been long and the resumption of work has been slow. On the other hand, the impact is from automobiles. The automobile industry, which has gradually come out of the haze, has once again reached the bottom of the valley (the bottom of the empirical year-on-year growth rate), and the year-on-year production data in February is expected to be worse than in January. The impact of the above two points on rubber consumption is very obvious.
Bulk internal reference: What else is worth watching in the future market?
Gao Linlin: The focus of the future market, I think there are mainly two: one is the speed of going to the library; the second is the force of automobile policy. Regarding the first one, it actually depends on the subsequent development of the epidemic, logistics, transportation and resumption of production. At present, the epidemic situation is different in different regions, and there are still uncertainties. We also see overseas signs showing the initial outbreak; second I believe that the market currently has expectations for the future “counter-cyclical” policy efforts, and this expectation supports the upward repair of the disk, and the future disk will more reflect the poor expectations, the strength of the policy and the margin for the recovery of market confidence influences. Recently, relevant persons from the Ministry of Commerce stated that the Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to formulate policies to further stabilize automobile consumption, and encourage localities to introduce measures to promote new energy vehicle consumption, increase traditional car purchase restrictions, and carry out trade-in-for-new measures to promote automobile consumption.
Han Yuyu: In fact, the essence of this problem is which policies or indicators may change, and changes in these indicators will have a great potential to affect the market ups and downs. In fact, it must be understood that price changes are always the result of a mismatch between supply and demand, so every link on the supply and demand levels is very important.
[Supply] In terms of supply, I suggest paying close attention to the weather conditions after the new season of cutting in Thailand. If the weather in Thailand is dry during the whole year of 19 years, the raw material output will not be abundant. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the problem of gum trees in Indonesia because Throughout the year, the price of natural rubber has moved at the bottom. The long-term negative processing profit affects the cash flow of the enterprise, and also affects the income of the rubber farmers. Then, the rubber farmers will also reduce their investment in the protection of gum trees. Whether it will intensify.
[Requirement] In terms of demand, I personally don’t think about looking at the amount of latex gloves. This part is too small, and synthetic rubber such as nitrile can be completely replaced without any impact on the margin. The main focus is on our tire market, so I personally think that there may be surprises in the replacement market. Although there are relatively many tools to promote economic policies in the country, and tax cuts and pension flows are relatively good means, I personally think that tax cuts are relatively uncontrollable to pull consumption, and given the current government fiscal revenue deficit, Tax cuts will also reveal their drawbacks. Therefore, the most effective way to boost the economy is probably infrastructure, and this year is the final year of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Its importance is self-evident. Then if all kinds of infrastructure indicators improve, it will feed back to the road transport, and then drive the tire replacement market.
Zhang Yangyang: The recent drought in Thailand may lead to a decline in rubber production in the new season. At present, the main production areas in Southeast Asia are entering a low-yielding season. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan provinces have stopped cutting and the supply margins have tightened. The specific impact of the drought in Thailand needs to wait until the new season of rubber cutting in Thailand. Whether it worsens.
Promulgation, implementation and implementation of automobile consumption policies in various regions. Affected by the epidemic, short-term heavy truck and automobile data decline. To hedge the economic decline caused by the epidemic, automobile consumption stimulus is used as a counter-cyclical adjustment tool. The recent implementation of various regions has a high probability of landing. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the policy details, whether the landing and enforcement In line with expectations.
Pan Shengjie: There are a few things to note: Thailand’s 6-month cumulative rainfall is -20% lower than the average, which is at the empirical bottom, and it is dry. Since then, the probability of rainfall has gradually increased, and the price of Lido rubber has increased. As mentioned above, the -25% year-on-year output of automobiles is an empirical bottom. After the impact of the epidemic, the probability will continue to rise gradually, and the price of Lido rubber will continue to increase. After the Spring Festival, futures prices will fall sufficiently. The 05 contract rose by + 11% year-on-year in January, and fell by -5% year-on-year in February. It is currently in the low position of the interval, and there is a high possibility of being underestimated.
Bulk internal reference: What are the suggestions for operation?
Gao Linlin: Unilaterally, we think that there is still room for rebound in rubber prices. At present, the pre-holiday gap has not been filled, but high stocks limit the rebound height. Future destocking and policy development (especially related policies to promote automobile consumption) are the main focuses.
Han Yuyu: After continuous exploration of the bottom of Hujiao, the space below is limited, and the space above is expected, and it is relatively cost-effective from the perspective of capital cost performance, so we think that it is definitely a more sound logic to do more along the bottom of the valuation. It is best to take it in the far month, and it is best to wait for the full-scale resumption of downstream work before entering with multiple orders, because then the logistics is fully restored, the spot can be smoothly unloaded, and the empty orders suppressed by the traders and manufacturers can be smoothly smoothed. Position, and this part of the flat is profitable and rigid, which may bring a wave of ideal rises.
Zhang Yangyang: At present, the “policy bottom” of rubber prices has appeared. The policy is expected to dominate the market. When the epidemic situation is lifted or controlled, the market may face a round of adjustment after the policy is fulfilled, that is, the “market bottom”. Investors can buy on pullback. The main glue gradually builds multiple orders below 11000
Pan Shengjie: Operation is recommended to be low and high level, set stop loss. In the absence of major industry news, bullish put strategies may be considered.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/53189.html