Home Global Rubber Analytics & Outlook Daily report on Natural Rubber: December 3, 2012

[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: December 3, 2012

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[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: December 3, 2012MARKET COMMENTARY

  • In the week gone by, Indian natural rubber market was on a bearish mode despite a firm trend being witnessed in the overseas market. RSS4 grade rubber in the physical market plunged Rs.165/kg, its weakest since late September 2010 towards the weekend after trading near Rs. 175/kg earlier the week. Meanwhile, NMCE rubber futures posted a weekly loss of six per cent. Amidst the peak production period, muted demand continued to hurt prices. However, the sharp declines witnessed in the market have considerably lessened the gap between natural rubber prices in the local and international market.
  • On Monday, positive moves are being witnessed in natural rubber prices in the international market supported by upbeat Chinese economic data. TOCOM rubber futures extended gains into the third successive day to hit a five week high following the Chinese manufacturing PMI that rose to seven month high in November.

TECHNICAL VIEW

  • According to China Rubber Industry Association, China’s total tire output will increase 5.9% to 483m pieces in 2012.
  • Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports eased from two month high earlier in November to 6520 tonnes by November 20 from 6739 tonnes 10-days before according to Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
  • Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 3.1 per cent to 93116 tonnes last week.
  • According to ANRPC, China’s Jan.-Nov. consumption rose 6.7% to 3.51million tonne and its natural rubber consumption this year is anticipated to be 3.83 million tonne from 3.77million tonne.
  • Rubber stocks held by Thai Govt stand at 170000 tonnes and are expected to rise to 410000 tonnes by March-end.
  • According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, November rubber exports may drop 25% on YoY basis to 95,000 tonnes
  • Rubber Board aims to expand total area under natural rubber cultivation to 4.0 lakh hectares by 2017.

TECHNICAL VIEW

 RUBBER Jan NMCE

Even as the trend stays bearish and prices are currently hovering below the 200 week simple moving average, which is currently placed near 17124, for the day, a brief bounce back towards 17100 or more to 17300 regions may be seen before resuming its downtrend. However, a direct fall below 16740 is likely to see continuation of prevailing weakness to 16570/16430 or more.

Source: Geojit Comtrade

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