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Main increase empty Shanghai rubber weak

1.     Summary

January 9, 2013 the 1305 contract Sanghai rubber opened at 26,260 yuan up to 26,320 yuan and 25,970 yuan, the lowest close at 26,035 yuan.

The trading volume of 310,256 hand, turnover increased -47,914 hand, the volume growth of -13.4% -8.1% change over the previous trading day.

Positions 139,732 hands, the day holding increases -1548 hand positions growth of -1.1%, 2.3% change compared with the previous trading day.

Closing price Change -145, or -0.6% -1.0% change over the previous trading day.

Positions, the most of the first 20 positions in 1305 before 33,791 (-2221) hand, the top 20 large amount of short positions 40561 (1330) hand.

Bulls Masukura -6.2% (-8.0%) change over the previous trading day, short day Masukura 3.4% (11.4% change over the previous trading day), the main force of more than a single / main empty single ratio of 83.3% (compared with the previous trading day change -8.5%). (Top 20 long positions on changes in the formula is the bulls today minus yesterday, similar to short. Diurnal variation calculation method and results with the previous period of the calculation methods are a bit different.)

2. Natural rubber spot

January 9, 2013, natural rubber side, East China full latex reported 25500 Dao 25,500 yuan / ton, the 20th in Thailand glue reported 3160-3180 U.S. dollars / ton, Malaysia, the 20th standard rubber reported 3200-3180 U.S. dollars / ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thailand marked the 20th reported 3100-3100 U.S. dollars / ton. Thai smoked rubber reported 3360-3380 U.S. dollars / ton.

Spreads aspects, East latex expires earlier change (0) yuan / ton, Thailand on the 20th standard rubber expires earlier changes (10) U.S. dollars / ton, Malaysia 20 plastic expires earlier changes (10) U.S. dollars / ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone, the Thai standard expires earlier changes in the 20th (20) U.S. dollars / ton, Thai smoked rubber expires earlier changes (10) U.S. $ / ton. Spread changes to the low price change.

Adhesive side, Thai standard rubber composite Jiaojia equivalent to 23,224 yuan / ton; Thai smoked rubber equivalent the sheet tobacco the composite Jiaojia for 24,693 yuan / ton.

The adhesive spread, full latex Less the Thailand standard adhesive spreads to 2,276 yuan / ton (expires earlier change -77). Smoke piece adhesive Less Thailand standard adhesive spread (expires earlier variation 0) 1256 yuan / ton. The full latex Less smoke piece of adhesive spread of 807 yuan / ton (expires earlier change -77).

3. Natural rubber futures

Shanghai rubber futures contract less Sanghai rubber spot spread 535 yuan / ton (expires earlier variation 0); Japanese Yan Pianjiao glue the main contract less Thai smoked rubber spot price spread is $ 191 (expires earlier change to $ 19); Sicom standard rubber futures price minus Thailand No. 20 spot price of the standard rubber spread is -90 (expires earlier changes $ 6);

Shanghai rubber futures less rubber  futures main RMB adhesive spread RMB -61 / / ton (expires earlier change -218); Shanghai rubber futures less the Singapore standard rubber futures equivalent the adhesive spread to 3,473 yuan per / / ton (expires earlier change -121);

The smoked sheet stock containing tariff VAT price amounting to 26,318 yuan / / ton (77), the futures price less the the smoked rubber discounted price -283 $ / / ton (-77).

4. Synthetic rubber spot

January 9, 2013 synthetic rubber and butadiene on petrochemical reported 13,300 yuan / ton, the butadiene rubber Takahashi BR9000 Sinopec East China reported 17,500 yuan / ton, 1502 SBR Qilu Petrochemical East China reported 17,500 yuan / ton.

Spread aspects, butadiene expires earlier change (0) yuan / ton, butadiene rubber expires earlier change (0) yuan / ton, SBR expires earlier change (0) yuan / ton. Spread changes to the low price change.

5. Previous period stock inventory and Free Trade Zone

January 9, 2013, of natural rubber warrants were 64,630 tons, expires earlier change (300) tons.

January 4, 2013, of natural rubber warehouse receipts 62760 (+840) tons, Inventory 99,658 tons (+1378).

As of December 17, the total inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber 00900-291400 tons compared with the November 30. Natural rubber to reduce 04300-188700 tons; synthetic rubber to reduce 00400-44500 tons; adhesive 05600-58200 tons.

6. Supply

November natural rubber imports fell 8.3% to 220,000 tons, imports in November than the same ring. Natural rubber imports by 3.7% year on year to 1.97 million tons in January-November. November Customs data, natural rubber and adhesive imports totaled 361,000 tons, 1-November natural rubber and adhesive imported 3.15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%.

Chinese rubber imports surge 18% in 2012, while the tire cumulative production growth of about 10%, more than 8% of the increase in tire imports spent?

December 17, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to the 2013 Tariff Implementation Plan “has 10 of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council plenary meeting examined and approved, and submitted to the State Council for approval, since January 1, 2013. Rubber aspects, natural rubber per ton tariff, smoked rubber from 1600 down to 1200, the technical classification natural rubber from 2000 down to 1200.According to the current FOB prices, smoked rubber costs 468 yuan, 936 yuan cheaper standard rubber.

ANRPC monthly report by the end of December 2012 showed that natural rubber production in 2012: Malaysia 92 million tons, down 7.6%; India 910,000 tons, an increase of 1.7%; China 795,000 tons, an increase of 9.4%; 150,000 in Sri Lanka tons, down 4.4%.In addition, the Philippines, 110,000 tons, Cambodia, 60,000 tons. Exports, Malaysia, in 2012 1.31 million tons, an increase of 4.5%; Vietnam 990,000 tons, an increase of 21%; Cambodia 64,000 tons, a year-on-year surge 42%. The report said, compared with January 2011 and 2012, is expected in January 2013 the ANRPC natural rubber production will be reduced. The report also shows that the end of 2012, ANRPC ending stocks of 25.8 million tonnes. Comment: No matter how ANRPC report said in 2013, the global rubber supply must be greatly increased. The ANRPC report producing countries report (seller), rationale, we the ANRPC report should not expect the first to tell investors in China (China is the biggest buyer of rubber) supply increase. Production in Thailand, we are concerned about is how much?

7. Demand

The demand side, the end of December to January 6, steel tire domestic market, affected by the downturn in the demand drag tire market as a whole continued oversupply situation. The majority of domestic the provincial dealer inventory high, shipments pressure, while municipal and below dealers and more to stay on the sidelines, the majority said that the current inventory smaller, until after the Spring Festival vendors promotional restock. Domestic tire market promotion remains the main theme in the short-term, but the demand may be further down.

Steel tire tire factory operating rate, consistent with late December, the individual factories slightly reduced. Most factories during the New Year holiday. The operating rate to maintain a normal state. Overall, demand is seasonal trough.

As the Spring Festival is approaching, in the coming year to start considering the tire factory stocking. Jiaojia overall trend up, to attract traders tire factory before the Spring Festival stocking.

Overall, the demand side, the heavy truck sales rebound, but the seasonal downturn in tire demand. Look at the supply side, domestic stop cutting the State Reserve secondary reserve, bullish Jiaojia. Synthetic rubber, natural rubber prices are still much higher than the normal spread. From a price structure the Sanghai rubber contrast Thailand Jiaojia poor high suppress the formation Sanghai rubber. Qingdao inventory increase in December, will create an annual inventory highs. Due to the traders in the beginning of 2013, more than stocking, bad. Poor fundamentals boom Sanghai rubber, but the macro bullish late expected Sanghai rubber bullish the main focus of the current City of glue.

Sanghai rubber midline to see more. From the current position structure, the 1305 single empty still dominate, 1309 empty single advantage is obvious. Delivery costs from the pre-smoked rubber disk prices many times the smoked rubber delivery profits, the smoked sheet sets Sanghai rubber 1305 policyholders numerous. January 1st, 2013, the Rubber the new rates take effect, which will help to buy smoked rubber spot throwing 1305 arbitrage operations.

Today recommended

The USDJPY yesterday rose 1.36%, the sharp depreciation of the yen, prompting Japanese yen denominated gum up 1.75%.

Yesterday overseas smoked rubber stock rose $ 10, the standard rubber up $ 10, and both rose slightly.

Overnight Basemetal -0.10% -0.14%, Brent crude, EUR USD -0.23%. Yesterday, the main increase empty bearish peripheral macro news today is expected to Sanghai rubber continue weak finishing. If you fall below 26,000 yuan, more than a single sidelines.


Translated by Google Translator from

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