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Friday, December 3, 2021

Natural Rubber Monthly Report: After the storm, Shanghai rubber looking forward to the revival of demand

The CAAM data show, car sales reached 2,034,500, an increase of 46.48% in January. This is the car sales topped 2 million. In January, passenger car sales of 1,725,525, an increase of 48.67%. Commercial vehicle growth performance is acceptable, the total sales of 308,963, a year-on-year growth of 34.8%.

Whether from car sales data from tire production and export data, we see downstream is in the process of recovery which. Which promote the process of urbanization, the investment will continue to further enhance the fact may gradually reverse the situation of insufficient downstream demand.

The momentum of China’s economic recovery is not stable, inflation is relatively not large, from the point of view of the growth rate of the money supply and new loans, nor strong urgency to tighten monetary policy.Commodity prices, including Hujiao, including the formation of a repressive impact on monetary policy, it is not enough.

The 2012 Jiaojia rose close relationship with the United States QE3 launch. The end of 2012 and 2013, a wave of rising fiscal cliff Act finally reached are inextricably linked. Therefore, when signs of turning these two factors, Hujiao price fall is also reasonable.

However, due to the Fed’s policy objective is to ensure that the employment rate, automatic cut public spending will eventually reduce jobs, from the point of view of both contradictory, is generally believed that the two can not be introduced in parallel.

Operating strategy, make full preparations. Bull strategy: when rubber prices dropped to 23000-23100 yuan / ton area, may be appropriate to set up a small amount of more than a single, and when below 23,000 yuan / ton line stop. Short strategy: When the Jiaojia 23,000 yuan / ton down to effectively break through after reverse short, below only the profit may be concerned about the 21,500 yuan / ton line.

Translated by Google Translator from http://news.cria.org.cn/4/13279.html

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