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Friday, May 20, 2022

Rubber short-term oversold bounce

Abstract:

The external commodity Pudie last week, rubber extension before downtrend, dropping accelerate the 18500 line stabilized rebound. Rubber round down, the price within the strong weak, inside and outside the spread has been significantly restored, Thailand 20 adhesive premium to the magnitude of the domestic spot price has been reduced to less than 1,000 yuan / ton. Rubber supply and demand fundamentals are still showing a loose pattern, Free Trade Zone, high inventory situation is difficult to break.Synthetic rubber production prices weak, can not constitute support for natural rubber. Demand, the downstream tire capacity utilization reached high. Although the current supply is still abundant, but the price after panic down to the inventory is a relatively slow process, when the market return to rational prices or stabilized.

This week in the operating strategy: rubber trend this week, a technical rebound is expected mainly operating on short-term empty single bidder, backed by more than a single 19000 short try to wet storage, target 20000.The medium-term trend in empty, the price rebounded to the the 21000 line try midline short.

Weekly investment strategy recommended

The external commodity Pudie last week, rubber extension before downtrend, dropping accelerate the 18500 line stabilized rebound. Rubber round down, the price within the strong weak, inside and outside the spread has been significantly restored, Thailand 20 adhesive premium to the magnitude of the domestic spot price has been reduced to less than 1,000 yuan / ton. Rubber supply and demand fundamentals are still showing a loose pattern, Free Trade Zone, high inventory situation is difficult to break.Synthetic rubber production prices weak, can not constitute support for natural rubber. Demand, the downstream tire capacity utilization reached high. Although the current supply is still abundant, but the price continues to drop significantly the irrational market performance, destocking is a relatively slow process, when the market return to rational prices or stabilized. This week in the operating strategy recommendations:

Trend technical rebound is expected this week rubber-based, operating on short-term leave an empty one, backed by more than a single 19000 short try to wet storage, target 20000.

The medium-term trend in empty, the price rebounded to the the 21000 line try midline short.

Second, fundamental analysis

Or have been put forward to protect the price policy

In the the Asian rubber forum last week, the world’s top three most important natural rubber producing countries, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia will not be extended to the three countries Joint Implementation the export reduction policy, but will continue to support natural rubber prices measures unilaterally. The market is expected to fall through rubber prices continued to plunge, but prices continue to fall, insured policy will be continuously enhanced.

Bangkok, April 18, the Thai government, a senior official said, Thailand plans to take more measures to support the decline in rubber prices.Officials who asked to remain anonymous, said: “National Rubber Committee will meet soon to design a new measure. Measures are likely to be submitted to the Cabinet for approval in May and then implement

Since the main production policy factors, the spot market outlook is expected to rubber down space is limited. Auto market downturn, die-hard rubber prices

In March 2013, the EU-27 passenger car sales of 1,307,107 units, compared with March 2012, 1,454,907 vehicles, down 10.2% year-on-year.January or 8.7%, further intensified in February to 10.5% in March, still maintained a double-digit decline in the proportion. From October 2011 to last month, the European automobile market for 18 consecutive

May year-on-year decline. The first quarter of this year, the EU-27 passenger car sales of 2,989,486 units, compared to 3,313,906 units in 2012, a year-on-year decline of 9.8%.

According to Bloomberg, Japan’s Nomura Holdings Inc. (Nomura Holdings) an analyst recently said that the Bridgestone rubber consumption this year will be lower than previously expected, due to the market demand in the United States may level than expected February low 2.6%.

Rebound in rubber prices the downstream consumer remains in the doldrums, space is limited.

Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/14079.html

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