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[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: April 29, 2013

MARKET COMMENTARY

Sentiments turned in favour of bulls in the local natural rubber market towards the close of the week. Buying from the tyre manufacturers and short covering lifted RSS4 from a two month low in the physical market to a two week high on Saturday. NMCE rubber futures rose as well, to one and a half week high. Looking ahead, sentiments are likely to be mixed on reports over import duty. Last week, the Union Commerce Minister had assured that the import duty on natural rubber was to be hiked soon though the Minister of State for Finance in a written reply in Lok Sabha ruled out a hike for the time being. Also, a holiday mood is likely to set over in coming days with string of holidays in the China, Japan and other major natural rubber producing countries this week. Meanwhile, tapping is likely to gather pace in coming days as the major rubber growing areas have been receiving rains for the past few days. Geojit

MARKET NEWS

Indian Metrological Department sees normal monsoon for the current year and likely to issue prediction on monsoon onset around May 15.

According to Union Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma, import duty on natural rubber was to be hiked soon though the Minister of State for Finance in a written reply in Lok Sabha ruled out a hike for now.

Rubber Stockpiles in the Qingdao bonded zone, climbed to 371,100 metric tons at the end of this month from 366,900 tons on April 15. Rubber inventories in SHFE rose too, by 2.3 per cent to 121936 tons the previous week.

According to Indonesian Rubber Association, natural rubber output during 2013 may decline to 3.0 million tonnes from the earlier estimates of 3.2 million tonnes due to wet weather.

According to General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s shipped 50000 tonnes of rubber in March and exports are seen falling by 5.7 per cent to 50000 in April on YoY basis.

TOCOM April rubber futures expired with 503 lots being delivered compared to 406 lots delivered the previous month.

Thailand, the world’s largest rubber producer, is working on plans to reduce supply and increase demand for natural rubber to stabilize prices, according to the government.

TECHNICAL VIEW

  RUBBER May NMCE

Broad Trend: Seen weak.

Near Term: Seen extending the prevailing buying momentum towards 16250 but requires clearing and sustaining the same for further upsides. Else, a turn lower to 15950-15850 initially followed by 15600 cannot be ruled out.

TURNAROUND

Resistances

LEVELS

Supports

16100/16250

16250-15950-15350

15850/15750

16400/16620

15600/15480

16750/16860

15350/15250

 

Source: Geojit Comtrade

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