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Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Rubber wary of risks Holiday data was weaker than expected

[Fundamentals]

1, the spot market: Qingdao Free Trade Zone, Thailand, Malay adhesive RMB quoted at 17,800 yuan / ton, USD glue, Malaysia and Thailand on the 20th composite quotation mark rubber in 2440-2480 U.S. dollars / ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone, Thailand No. smoke film spot at 2720-2750 U.S. dollars / ton, Thailand, Malaysia 20 standard spot price of 2440-2480 U.S. dollars / ton, the of Indonesia 20 standard spot price in the 2390-2410 U.S. dollars / ton.

Comments: near the holiday market offer scarce, the market today offer a narrow range of finishing, mainly to discuss the real one.

2, the U.S. first quarter GDP was 2.5%, below market expectations of 3.0%, to confirm that the slow economic growth. Detailed report pointed out that consumer spending to achieve substantial growth, the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2010; On the other hand, the end of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index is 76.4, higher than market expectations, but consumer confidence is still down to the last three months lows.

Comment: In general, neither the U.S. data surprises, and not enough on the bad, no market for the formation of clear guidelines.

3, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data released on April 30, the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell sharply to 49.0, the lowest level since 2013. Data show that the United States in April Chicago PMI fell to 49.0, 52.5 expected, 52.4 prior. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Reviews: April Chicago PMI output sub-index for the first time since September 2009, fell below the 50 mark, while the input price index sub-index is the lowest since October 2009.

4, China Logistics and Purchasing Federation, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Sector Survey, the April China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.6%, the seventh consecutive month above 50%, however, compared with March, down 0.3 percentage points.

Comment: China’s economic operation more obvious changes are the scale expansion driven speed type to rely on the support and efficiency of restructuring and upgrading to shift, the next step should focus on stabilizing domestic demand, improve the sustainability of economic stabilization.

[Market Review]

Last trading day before HuJiao opened at 19500, opening soon quickly rushed to an intraday high of 19625, and then all the way down, the midday opening the diving hitting a low of 18,835, followed by consolidation, to close at 19,080 days to lighten 12152 hand to 148,460 hands.

[Operation Policy]

Short-term market: holidays disk data was weaker than expected, fell again risk of short-term vigilance, May macroeconomic risk is still difficult to avoid, but not expected to occur in April panic risk, so with the May macroscopic gentle, HuJiao will fall into The pattern of weak shocks. The same time the fundamentals are still in a weak position, no bright spots supported by a rebound, it is expected that Hujiao in May remained vulnerable, concerned about the 18,000 mark support, in the absence of effective breakdown, is expected to form the bottom of the shock.

Of arbitrage: the consolidation of the current, and the difference between the U.S. standard rubber prices 1752, with the Yan Pianjiao spread narrow -3406. The HuJiao down the process can be considered to gradually sell their present level of profit taking.

The intertemporal arbitrage: 1401 and 1309 spread to 610 intertemporal arbitrage opportunities appeared, intraday operational.

Source: http://market.cria.org.cn/25/14279.html

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