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[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: Aug 22, 2013

MARKET COMMENTARY

Natural rubber in the international market is seen rising on Thursday bolstered by an upbeat Chinese manufacturing data released earlier today. Despite hints that the US Fed may start to taper its monetary stimulus, market sentiments got a boost from an unexpected rise in China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI. The benchmark January rubber futures on TOCOM jumped two per cent. Weakness in yen aided the prices too. In the mean time, a mixed trend was witnessed in the local natural rubber market on Wednesday. While NMCE rubber futures were seen rising, quotes for RSS4 in the physical market dipped further, sending prices to its lowest level since late-June. Amidst dearth in local supplies and weakening rupee, increasing imports and improving climatic conditions in the major rubber growing areas in Kerala are weighing on the market.

MARKET NEWS

Kochi to host two international rubber conferences – Asian Latex Conference (ALC) 2013 on September 5 and 6 and India Rubber Summit and Dinner (IRSD) 2013 on September 7. ⊳Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 3.8 per cent to 122645 tonnes last week.

The Thai government planned to spend 30 billion baht to support farmers and rubber processors, Deputy Prime Minister Yukol Limlamthong said on Aug. 15.

Rubber inventories in Qingdao, China’s main hub for the commodity fell to 298,300 metric tons from 313,100 tons on July 31 according to the Qingdao International Rubber Exchange.

Natural rubber production in India tumbled 32.4 per cent in July to 46000 tonnes and consumption dropped 3.75 per cent to 82500 tonnes on year on year basis. In the mean time, imports jumped 39.2 percent to 29311 tonnes during the same period.

Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses fell to 8470 tonnes as of July 31 to its lowest in about seven months, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.

China imported 150000 tonnes of natural rubber in July compared to 129827 tonnes imported during last month.

ANRPC sees natural rubber imports by China rising 6.6 per cent in 2013 to 3.59 million tonnes.

TECHNICAL VIEW

 RUBBER Sep NMCE

As long as 17500 hold downside, a rebound to 17850-18000 ranges or even more seems possible. A direct fall below 17500 with considerable volume could induce further weakness towards 17380/17250.

TURNAROUND

Resistances

LEVELS

 Supports

17700/17850

18300-17500

17500/17380

18000/18150

17250/17100

18300/18500

16900-16800

 

Source: Geojit Comtrade

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