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Friday, March 24, 2023

Rubber domestic supply and demand balance basically established a new wave of rebound

Shanghai rubber end of October fell below 20,000 yuan / ton mark integer, declared the rally since the end of August, early November Shanghai rubber down to 19,000 yuan / ton line. The reason there are three points: first, after the golden nine silver ten season, the downstream demand procurement, coupled with a substantial increase in imports, rubber gradually increased warehousing, inventory bottomed out, Qingdao Bonded inventory from the beginning of May to the inventory end of the process, the supply pressure resurgence. Second, the price of the two cities is now departing, the price difference is widening, rubber registered warehouse receipts Shanghai Futures Exchange steadily increased, even intends to sell hedge settlement by the influx of the market. Third, the October FOMC meeting minutes hinted that it might reduce the QE at the end, and as the U.S. economy gradually stabilized, the market for the Fed in December to reduce the size of the debt purchase warming concerns, commodities downward pressure.

Surprised the market expected, November 28 Shanghai rubber suddenly bottomed out, the way to go, in return 19,000 yuan / ton mark, while Crack 5, 10-day moving average, the next day to continue to soar. State Reserve Shouchu rumor is inverted V-shaped rubber finish catalyst.

Shouchu rumor is not without credentials, and ultimately the State Reserve purchasing and storage news settled, but the actual revenue reserves only about 60,000 tons. Insiders had expected, if the purchasing and storage of 200,000 tons, the weight of the Shanghai rubber 20,500 yuan / ton hope bigger. And if you add the two previous State Reserve purchasing and storage of 100,000 tons smoked sheet, revenue reserves this year to reach 300,000 tons, then will greatly reduce the supply pressure rubber spot market. While purchasing and storage at about three times the total amount of 160,000 tons, but only half of the expected, after some early speculation, the market will return to reason, break up the lack of positive support.

However, the latest data from January to November, the domestic natural rubber market equilibrium between supply and demand, the downstream tire production increased by 8 percent, car sales grew by over 13%, while domestic natural rubber supply growth at around 7.5%. Supply pressure is less than expected, higher than expected growth in demand, but also makes a significant Shanghai rubber below support.

After a sharp decline in November after Shanghai rubber the price difference to a certain degree of repair. Meanwhile, before the end of the Spring Festival is a seasonal rise of rubber that is due in January next year to usher in the Chinese New Year, or downstream stocking ahead, driven by demand for rubber small cycle rebound can be expected. And from the disk Shanghai rubber 1405 contract, the average has have turned to rubber basically established a new wave rally. But the decision to close the State Reserve reserves the rebound height is limited, and the United States by the end of QE is expected to increase to reduce rubber 20000-20200 yuan / ton stressful.

Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/18139.html

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