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[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: January 10, 2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

Sentiments stayed feeble in the local natural rubber market on Thursday. In the physical market, RSS4 continued to slide down and is hovering near its weakest level since mid-December. Thin demand coupled with worries over further declines pressurized prices to move south. However, on NMCE, following a drop towards it lowest levels in about a month, mild short covering rallies were witnessed during the closing hours. In the mean time, in the international market, natural rubber is seen resuming its downtrend as the week ends. TOCOM rubber futures dropped on Friday, reversing the previous session gains weighed down by firmer yen and on weak cues from the equities. Rising stockpiles amidst forecasts of higher natural rubber production from the major producers for this year influenced the market too.

MARKET NEWS

China imported 350,000 tonnes of rubber in December, up 66.7 percent on the same month a year ago.

Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports rose 5.0 percent from 11 days earlier to a 6-1/2-month high of 12,560 tonnes as of Dec. 31, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.

According to Thai Office of Agricultural Economics, rubber production in Thailand may rise 4.3 per cent in 2014 to 4.03million tonnes.

Annual car sales in India declined for the first time in 11 years in 2013, posting a 9.59 percent fall, according to SIAM.

Natural rubber imports by India in December jumps 46 per cent to 26853 tonnes year on. Production falls 5.3 per cent to 108000 tonnes while consumption rose about 1.4 per cent to 79500 tonnes during the same period.

Natural-rubber output from growers representing 93 per cent of global production estimated to expand to 11.15 mln tons in 2013 on growth in Thailand, Indonesia and China, according to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. Output in Vietnam estimated to jump 21 per cent to 1.04 mln tons in 2013, overtaking Malaysia as the third-largest producer.

Indonesia sees 2013 natural rubber output to be at 3.18 million tonnes against 3.04 million tonnes produced in 2012.

TECHNICAL VIEW

 RUBBER Feb NMCE

15500 ranges downside will act as a strong support, below which bears are likely to gather further strength. As long as this level remains undisturbed, pullbacks are likely. However, it requires to clear resistance at 16060 for further rise.

TURNAROUND

Resistances LEVELS  Supports
15800/15950 16060-15500 15630-15580
16060/16160   15500/15350
16270/16400   15200/15050

 

Source: Geojit Comtrade

Download this report (full content – PDF file) here

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