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[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: January 16, 2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

Sentiments in the local market remained feeble. On Wednesday, RSS4 was seen trading rather steady with a negative bias. In the physical market, the overall activities remained sluggish owing to lack of buyers as well as sellers and a weak trend on futures platform added on further pressure. On NMCE selling pressure persisted and the grade lost more than one per cent.

On Thursday, natural rubber prices were seen stretching the previous session gains in the overseas market. TOCOM rubber futures inched up, buoyed by a weaker yen and upbeat Japanese economic indicator. However, concerns over demand from China, burgeoning stockpiles and weak cues from the physical market weighed on.

MARKET NEWS

Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 8.0 per cent to 190158 tonnes last week.

China imported 350,000 tonnes of rubber in December, up 66.7 percent on the same month a year ago.

Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports rose 5.0 percent from 11 days earlier to a 6-1/2-month high of 12,560 tonnes as of Dec. 31, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.

According to Thai Office of Agricultural Economics, rubber production in Thailand may rise 4.3 per cent in 2014 to 4.03million tonnes.

Annual car sales in India declined for the first time in 11 years in 2013, posting a 9.59 percent fall, according to SIAM.

Natural rubber imports by India in December jumps 46 per cent to 26853 tonnes year on. Production falls 5.3 per cent to 108000 tonnes while consumption rose about 1.4 per cent to 79500 tonnes during the same period.

Natural-rubber output from growers representing 93 per cent of global production estimated to expand to 11.15 mln tons in 2013 on growth in Thailand, Indonesia and China, according to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. Output in Vietnam estimated to jump 21 per cent to 1.04 mln tons in 2013, overtaking Malaysia as the third-largest producer.

TECHNICAL VIEW

 RUBBER Feb NMCE

There exist weakness and a direct fall below 15200 with considerable volume may strengthen the bearishness. As long as this level remains undisturbed downside, sideways movement may be anticipated with a tendency to pullbacks towards 15700 ranges.

TURNAROUND

Resistances

LEVELS

 Supports

15550/15700

15950-15700-15200

15250-15200

15800/15950

15100-15050

16060/16160

 14900/14800

 

Source: Geojit Comtrade

Download this report (full content – PDF file) here

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