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2014 tire demand optimism increased risk

2013 China’s tire industry Xianyihouyang. The situation is not optimistic about the beginning, tire sales in the first half are poor, but the situation has improved since the second half. The annual tire sales, exports, profits and other indicators are maintained double-digit growth, the highest level in three years the best. Into 2014, the tire industry has not subsided optimistic atmosphere, most people in the industry this year tire market trends remain optimistic, but also the extent that the market will further intensify competition in the need to be cautious optimism, should be concerned about production capacity, market demand changes in rubber prices and other effects on the tire industry.

Demand is not “cold” production or to maintain double-digit growth

China’s tire production in 2013, double-digit growth in 2014, the tire industry operating environment both at home and abroad are still good, which will determine the demand for tires will remain strong. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, car sales in 2013 topped 20 million, respectively, both significantly better than the previous two years, the Chinese auto industry will continue to be 8% to 12% growth expected in 2014, this state will continue for quite long period of time.

After the Third Plenary Session of the Party’s eighteen, significantly accelerate the pace of urbanization, people purchase intention significantly enhanced. Road Traffic Law and Governance overloaded implementation of transport index has clear signs of recovery. These factors determine the domestic demand for our tires will not “cold”, predicted the growth rate comparable to the automobile industry, the growth rate of around 10%.

In foreign markets, the environment is also good tires. U.S. economy is recovering, the auto industry recovery significantly, significantly increased tire demand. According to the latest U.S. Rubber Manufacturers Association said it expects 2014 shipments of reasons for the increase include the unemployment rate, the real estate situation and an increase in car sales, car driving mileage and other macro-economic factors to increase in 2014 to replace the demand for car tires only it is expected to increase to 200 million units. Europe’s economy is gradually emerging from the European debt crisis, purchasing managers index highs, recovery vehicles and tire needs.

Growth in demand for domestic and export markets resonance, predicted China’s tire 2014 is expected to continue to maintain double-digit annual growth, semi-steel tire growth is estimated to reach about 12%, steel tire growth at around 10%. OTR after showing signs of recovery after more than a year of silence, with an estimated growth rate of around 10%.

Sales are expected to turn negative price down is positive

2013 China’s tire sales slightly negative growth, mainly due to tire prices declined more than production growth. Our tires including truck and car tire price indices have gone more than two years of decline, is expected in 2014 will continue to decline in the first half, but the decline slowed in the second half may be stabilized.

Rubber prices currently at around 18,000 yuan / ton, the price decline is larger than the decrease of the tire, so the tire there is a certain amount of decline. Tire prices generally lag behind the decline in rubber prices, from the time also see a downward spiral tires have at least half a year or more lag. But the price of rubber is basically a rubber cost price, fell very limited space, the larger the probability of price shocks for some time after the rubber up. Such forecasts tire prices down space is not large, estimated at about 5%, relative to longer time, estimates may stabilize or up in the third quarter before.

Tire sales volume and price of the plot, as the price dropped to offset part of the tire sales growth, while prices fell by less than a tire tire sales growth, estimated that the annual total sales of tires from negative to positive, but the rate will be below 5% .

Export prices, due to overseas demand boosted tire prices will be relatively stable or decreased slightly. As exports grew contribution expected export value growth rate may reach 8% to 10%.

Profits will decline at a higher level of profitability

2013 tire industry profitability is good, but the profit growth rate showed a clear downward trend, mainly because the main raw material of rubber tires and tire prices decline there is a difference between the price decline. The difference in 2014 is still there, and this determines the overall profitability of the industry will remain at a high level.

But with tire prices continue downward, while rubber prices stable or shock, this difference will show a narrowing trend, leading tire margins.But tire companies to improve economies of scale and reduce inventory level of profitability will have a positive effect.

2014 China’s tire industry overall is still a good year, loss-making enterprises only individual bias tire business, losses reduced the number of companies to the lowest level in decades. Industry overall profit growth will drop to less than 20% of the tire margins will drop to below 4%. For the type of tire, engineering tire highest profit margins, followed by steel tires, semi-steel tire lowest margins.

Investment risk is likely to increase the trend of strong

2013 was China’s tire investment appears small “blowout”, China’s new steel tire preliminary annual production capacity of 15 million, half steel tire production capacity of 100 million.

2014 tire investment enthusiasm remains unabated, there is only near Linyi tires over 10 projects are large-scale, these projects, once completed, will become the tire industry Linyi second “Dawangzhuang.” Tire outside investment in Shandong also in full swing, almost every plant has an old tire expansion or new projects planned.

2014 China will continue to add steel tire production 15 million, more than half of steel production capacity of 100 million births. By the end of this year, China’s steel tire capacity will reach 165 million, semi-steel tire with an annual capacity of over 600 million, China’s tire industry will become more apparent structural overcapacity.

Ensuing annual tire industry operating rate will further go at the end, from the last estimate was reduced to about 80% about 75% or less, will be entering the column serious surplus industry.

However, this has caused departments and industry attention. Shandong Province, Jan. 10 projects approved in principle the new capacity “serious excess capacity to resolve conflicting opinions”, no approval, including tires, including the filing of serious excess capacity of the industry. This will this wave as the center of a national Shandong tire investment boom poured a pot of cold water, but the exact impact is estimated to be in order to show after three quarters.

Translated by Google Translator from http://news.cria.org.cn/3/19044.html

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