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[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: June 2, 2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

Rubber prices in the spot and futures markets ended lower as there was some selling at higher levels by stockists, who had bought rubber at lower rates to take advantage of the recent recovery in prices. The weakness in international rubber prices too weighed down the market sentiments. However, in the short term, prices are expected to tread higher mainly due to concerns over fall in rubber yield. Likely heavy rainfall this season will further hamper output and support prices in the near term. The India Meteorological Department is sticking to its forecast for the onset of monsoon in Kerala on June 5. Chinese markets will remain closed Monday on account of Dragon Boat Festival. MARKET

⊳Rubber inventory in top consumer China has dropped in recent weeks to below 160,000 tonnes; stocks in the bonded warehouses remain high at around 360,000, according to dealers’ estimate.

⊳ China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in five months in may due to rising new orders, official data showed on Sunday, reinforcing views that the world’s second-largest economy is regaining momentum.

⊳ World rubber prices have fallen this year more than 30% to a nine-year low because of global surplus. Forecasters say supply this year could exceed demand by anywhere between 240,000 and 430,000 tonnes, as major consuming countries such as Japan and China still have large stockpiles.

⊳Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 22514 tonnes as of May 20, up 2.89 percent from 10 days earlier, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed on last week.

⊳A slump in natural rubber prices to multi-year lows is spurring Southeast Asian farmers to turn to other crops and tappers to look for other jobs, potentially chipping away at a chronic supply overhang.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER July NMCE

As prices cleared the stiff support of 14650 with sturdy volume, expect to continue the selling pressure towards 14350 initially followed by 14200/14100 levels. However, an unexpected rise above 14700 likely to take prices higher but, such moves are least expected for the day.

TURNAROUND

Resistances LEVELS  Supports
14450-14650 13950-15100 14350-14200
14700-14900   14150-13900
15150-15400   13800-13650

 

Source: Geojit Comtrade

Download this report (full content – PDF file) here

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