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[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: September 19, 2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

 ⊳ Natural rubber in the Indian market were held in tight ranges on Thursday. Even as the broad trend stayed weak, RSS4 in the physical market remained rather stayed around Rs.124 a kg, while on NMCE, rubber future took a pause after the earlier advances. Amidst poor demand from the tyre sector and retreating prices in the overseas market, thin supplies probably buoyed the sentiments. In the meantime, with prices falling to multi-year lows, Kerala Chief Minister has urged the Prime Minister to raise import duty on natural rubber.

⊳ As the week’s session culminates, natural rubber in the overseas market is probably heading to end the week’s session in losses. TOCOM rubber futures resumed to decline following an initial rise. While concerns over demand persisted amidst supply glut, weakening yen probably limited losses. SHFE and AFET rubber futures were in red as well..

MARKET NEWS

 ⊳ Inventories in Qingdao, China’s main rubber-trading hub, fell to 192,200 mt yday from 217,400 mt on Aug. 29, according to Qingdao International Rubber Exchange Market.

⊳ Vietnam’s rubber exports rises 12 per cent to 113922 tonnes in August on MoM basis according to the nation’s General Customs Department.

⊳ Thai rubber farmers defer planned protest after minister offers talks.

⊳ Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 100 tonnes to 166248 tonnes last week.

⊳India’s Commerce Minister says national policy on rubber is being formulated and a stakeholders meeting will be organised soon on issues concerning the rubber industry.

⊳ According to Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics NR production in Thailand is likely to rise to 4.58 million tonnes from 4.38 million tonnes as tapping area increased in the country’s north and north-eastern provinces.

⊳ India’s NR production in August declined 26% to 51000 tonnes on YoY basis while consumption registered a rise of 4.2% to 85000 tonnes. Imports declined as well to 42499 tonnes compared to 43221 tonnes imported during the same period last year.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER Oct NMCE

 Despite penetrating 12250 multiple times, it failed to sustain above this considerably strong resistance. As long as this region caps upside, sideways to downside moves may be witnessed. However, successful attempt to sustain above 12250 could lift prices initially to 12500 or more.

TURNAROUND

Resistances LEVELS  Supports
12250/12340 12250-11800 12050/11900
12500/12650 11820/11650
12740/12860 11550/11450

 

Source: Geojit Comtrade

Download this report (full content – PDF file) here

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