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Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Weekly: natural rubber will enter the stage fluctuated

Last week, the focus has been on the move Hujiao prices, the trend was stronger shocks, from the amount of positions, the positions gradually reduced volume also shrank, showing enough financial strength to rebound, but the net last week, more than the main increase, or herald, post market continues bearish forces weakened. The Dong Jingjiao more eye-catching performance last week, the fund bears lighten up significantly, it’s the first to rebound mainly by the country’s rubber stocks will increase the impact of the message, the specific content: Thailand intends to spend 30 billion baht to rebuild rubber stocks, the Thai government plans to one Within two months will boost rubber prices to at least 60 baht per kilogram, when the goal to achieve this price, the government will further increase or target prices.

State-owned rubber plantations organization will spend 20 billion baht to build inventory; another 10 billion baht will be paid to each organization to purchase rubber rubber.

Warehouse inventory domestic exchanges last week significantly reduced, reduced by nearly four thousand tons, inventory pressure 1411 contracts slowed.

Stock Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also down to 143,800 tons, the Japanese port of rubber stocks still continued to decline.

Last week, the domestic spot market prices have risen, the market supply is relatively limited, showing a tight supply condition. Thai raw material prices still remain low, the support is still weak for natural rubber, synthetic rubber and natural rubber spreads continue to widen, making the tire factory adhesive formulations to increase the willingness to begin to increase, there will stimulate substitution effect on natural rubber consumption; but this week began to accelerate adhesive prices lower, making the domestic futures in recent months premium adhesive expanded to 400 yuan.

Lower tire operating rate, the steel tire companies operating rate remained low, semi-steel tire companies operating rate increased slightly compared to previous years, the overall industry clearly showing the situation is not busy season, mainly due to the domestic real estate slump and the US dual case and Europe and Russia, the impact of recent anti-dumping investigation against domestic tire industry, and the impact of lower consumption will continue to restrict late.

From the current situation, the price difference is not a small margin has begun to return, the futures contract in recent months than the backwardation narrowed to 100 yuan, but still the premium pattern, so long as the downstream late or no significant improvement in the short term After the rally, the reunification process also will continue to spread fear. Now we see the raw materials by the main producing countries Thailand bailout move, has begun to stop the decline, including the stock market began to rebound, the market also appeared in the short-term supply of tight, firm prices are expected to remain for some time still. But we see that countries bailout move, mainly from the supply to proceed, even as the Thai rubber stocks thus established, but later postponed the supply pressure only, so they move to the market in addition to the establishment of the future supply is expected to reduce the external would not achieve substantial role, but the impact is limited for the moment, and this week is more likely to be concerned about macroeconomic policy at home and abroad, domestic news has been released to relax, natural rubber as the financial side of the property will therefore be supported, and the short-term as well as in terms of reducing the spread narrowing inventory point of view, gave rubber rebound conditions, we take a look at the downstream of the tire, it seems that the situation is getting worse, two programs allow the United States Domestic tire exports to the US market, significantly shrinking, and later in Russia as well as anti-dumping, once Europe added to the ranks of Chinese tires for anti-dumping, the domestic tire industry may be unprecedented seriousness, so Based on the above, we believe, rebound rubber is extremely limited, above the main line of resistance 13500 1501 contract is very large, we recommend investors to wait and see, short-term can try every altitude. Stay tuned for the follow-up the progress of the Russian anti-dumping investigations against Chinese car tires, as well as foreign macroeconomic policy trends.

Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/20/24091.html

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