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Wednesday, July 6, 2022

Natural rubber futures weekly

Last week Hujiao shock consolidation, through the previous week’s sharp decline, the Hujiao return to fundamentals. From a fundamental point of view, below the previous low, so the market is expected to abandon the possibility of re-occurrence of cut, short-term limit space below. The downstream consumer point of view, and did not see highlights, temporary factors supporting Hujiao rose see, so do Hujiao narrow range last week under the influence of the macro side.

Total domestic stock exchanges as of last weekend, 167,215 tons (+8838), inventories increased for weeks; futures warehouse receipts 125,030 tons (+1500), warehouse receipts also increased for several weeks, the futures price of a sustained pressure, especially It is a front-month contract.Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory as of July 15 was 107 thousand tons (-0.93), inventory continued to decline, with this import less this year, rubber prices firm dollar port related downstream plant needs to maintain the normal operation of the procurement. Hujiao continued decline in stock prices has played a strong supporting role. Japanese port stocks of rubber stock as of June 30 compared with the beginning of a decrease, the price low so that supply has caused nearly half of the reduction in inventory reduction trend.

Last week the domestic spot market prices basically stable, with the rhythm of changes in futures prices are basically the same. With the increase in market supply, spot prices showed a weak trend, but last week the situation has improved, mainly because the market panic eased. Thailand is in the tapping season last week, prices of raw materials market rally, a change in the early trend continues to decline, according to the latest news, Thailand drought. Alternatives: the impact of weakening crude oil, synthetic rubber prices continued to fall last week, making butadiene and styrene-butadiene rubber and spreads continued to widen last week, does not cut the resolution makes clear the supply of crude oil increased late pre-OPEC meeting become fixed number, after successful negotiations Iran will also make the local supply of crude oil increased later if oil prices continue to fall, will continue to weigh on the price of natural rubber.

Lower tire operating rate, as of July 17, steel tire companies operating rate 70.86% (- 0.3%), semi-steel tire companies operating rate 70.78% (- 0.9%), a decline in operating rates this week, following the first After a week of rising again in the first three weeks the downward trend continued.It is understood that lower tire plant appeared some funds increased pressure situation. June 12 US Department of Commerce issued a US passenger car and light truck tires in China anti-dumping and countervailing duty final results, affirmed that China exports to the US tire dumping and subsidization. July 15 start of the event to determine tariffs, the introduction of dual final results of the downstream plants to remain under pressure in a landmark event, post or downstream tire factory exports to the US are affected new stage.

Under Based on the above, the present rubber falls below this price, the futures price premium has narrowed, both inside and outside of the pattern is still upside down, plus the cost of supporting factors began to increase in the short term there is no greater negative impact of the situation in recent months, continue to contract Under difficult space. But now in the tapping season, the latter part of the global supply will gradually increase, making the spot price is easy or hard up. And the rubber downstream of the weak trend still has not been alleviated, the first heavy truck sales in June continued to show weakness; followed by Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts continued to increase, especially after the increase in June, indicating that the inflow of new rubber also increased, to 1601 contracts have begun to put pressure on; start tariffs dual rear tires final results of the identification, exports to the US tire plants affected. All in all, the medium-term pattern of liberal bias has not changed, but there is the possibility to ease macroeconomic factors and speculation appear weather, for the moment, no impact on Thailand’s temporary drought on gum, but if prolonged drought, it affects the gum or production rubber, the rubber of a rebound is possible, but space is still limited by the fundamental constraints, the proposed robust investors wait and see, wait for the opportunity of late rallies short.

Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/20/28025.html

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