1. Natural rubber supply and demand side analysis
Global supply and demand:
2016 January-October ANRPC member countries natural rubber production 9.072 million tons, an increase of 0.9%, while consumption increased by 4.9%. China, Malaysia fell, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam yield rise to varying degrees, Cambodia is growing rapidly. The main rubber producing countries new acreage will decline every year after 2013, 2016 and continue to shrink to less than 10 million hectares.
2016 main rubber producing countries cut the total open area of 8,663.40 million hectares, an increase of 1.56%, lower than the growth in acreage, total open cut rate 75.03%. Starting from June into the high yield of the major producing countries, Thailand and Malaysia-based low yields in Indonesia and its high yield, mainly in the second quarter. By losses and weather, 2016 tapping area and tapping the enthusiasm is not high, it is expected that 2016 annual rubber production increase will be relatively small.
2017 main rubber producing country’s total area is expected to open cut overall increase of about 2%, but by the La Nina weather this year, yields may not be as expected, whether there is a great increase in the total output variables. The demand side, the US auto production slightly increased, decreased slightly in Japan, the EU and China’s auto output increased significantly this year, a slight increase this year, driven by global demand for rubber.
Domestic supply and demand:
Supply: China natural rubber 1–9 total of 519,000 tons per month, compared to a decrease of 6.8% from last year; total imports of 1.68 million tons, reducing by 14.1% over last year.
Stock: Qingdao Bonded Zone Stock in mid-November total 90,900 tons, 07,700 tons increase compared to the end of October, the stock of natural rubber from the highs, currently 299,720 tons. Ending stocks in major producing countries in January after the consumption of inventory stage.
Demand: 1 – September cumulative rubber tire tire production increased by 7.3%, mainly due to decline in 2015 annual output of more. As of October, the new pneumatic tire tread accumulative export volume increased by 4.8%. 2016 steel and semi-steel tire tire operating rate in more than 70% higher compared to the same period in 2015, in November to maintain the high level. 2016 China Automotive 1–10 January production total of 21.03 million, representing an increase of 9.1%; total sales of 21.94 million, representing an increase of 13.9%. 1–10 Yuefen domestic heavy truck production total 549,000, representing an increase of 23.2%; total sales of 561,000, an increase of 23.5% over last year. Heavy truck orders in the coming months have been booked late optimistic demand.
2. Synthetic rubber market outlook analysis
Synthetic Rubber 2016 1–9 monthly total 4.012 million tons, an increase of 5.4%; total imports of 2.39 million tons, an increase of 89%, and exports from January to September a total of 163,000 tons, apparent consumption of synthetic rubber 1- September total of 6.239 million tons, an increase of 25.6%.
Synthetic rubber in rubber consumption accounted for between 53-60%. Global synthetic rubber supply increased significantly in 2011, 2013 surplus significantly in 2014 after a small amount of the shortage. Butadiene as the main raw material for synthetic rubber production capacity increase in 2019 was less, but butadiene capacity utilization is not high, the latter is expected to meet downstream demand by increasing capacity utilization.
Synthetic rubber and natural rubber prices are basically the same, the spread range -8200 to 5700, the median -1982, -2300 average. Butadiene prices this year rose to 14,000 from 6000, led all varieties of synthetic rubber prices rose, the current spread of natural rubber and synthetic rubber is relatively low, the price of natural rubber to support the formation.
3. Rubber guess the trend of late
1 January to October in major producing countries Rubber production increased by 0.9%, the year is expected to increase by about 1%. Open cut area of growth in 2017 expected to be between 1-2%, but the annual yield affected by the weather in the low, production is expected to be flat or decrease.
2. The next 1-2 months, gradually entering the country to stop cutting period, 3, 4, 5 month low rubber production, imports and lower domestic. Thai raw material market prices firm, the yield of the raw material is still tight, the negative impact of weather on tapping and production continues.
3. synthetic rubber raw material butadiene and styrene butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber production capacity to serve future slowdown
January-October increased 4.9% in the main rubber producing countries demand for rubber, the annual consumption is expected to increase 4.5 percent. China’s continued growth in car ownership, car sales and heavy truck production and sales data better, cargo bottoming out, exports improved.
Qingdao Bonded historically low inventory, the warehouse of the pressure decreases, the overall dominance of the high inventory, the inventory consumption after February period.
Rubber Future Trend
Time: at least six months
Space: The current price break 18,000 after post-space is difficult to judge
Source: Investment Hedge RESEARCH
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/35482.html