Weekly Summary: Rubber Market Fluctuated Downwards (Feb 21 – Feb 27)

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1 Market Price

NR Weekly Average Price

dominant contract RU2005

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(unit: /mt)

INE

dominant contract

NR2004

(unit:RMB/mt)

(unit: yen/kg)

Feb 14-

Feb 20

11,620.00

9,765.00

158.38

Feb 21-

Feb 27

11,445.00

9,704.00

185.44

Change

-175.00

-61.00

+27.06

Change rate

-1.51%

-0.62%

+17.09%

Spot Market Price

China Mainstream Market NR Weekly Average Price

(unit: RMB/mt)

Market

Shanghai

Shandong

Grade

SCRWF

SVR 3L

RSS 3

STR 20  mixed

SCR10

Feb 14-

Feb 20

11,335

11,525

13,535

10,970

11,300

Feb 21-

Feb 27

11,190

11,440

13,470

10,870

11,280

Change

-145

-85

-65

-100

-20

Change rate

-1.28%

-0.74%

-0.48%

-0.91%

-0.18%

2. Market Review

From February 20 to February 26, SCI NR Price Index dropped. As of January 26, it was 499.98, down 8.37 or 1.65% from February 19. Rubber prices followed the movements of commodity market and fluctuated downwards. The operating rate improved in China’s downstream industries. Logistics networks almost returned to normal. The was recovering slowly. However, the market was concerned about the when WHO raised the level of global risk alert. However, the rubber prices were low, and the rubber stopped already in major producing countries, which supported the rubber market somehow. In the short run, rubber prices will be fluctuating in a low level.

This week, NR futures prices on the SHFE fluctuated downwards. RU2005 was fluctuating in the range of RMB 11,830-11,220/mt, cancelling out the price drop last week. More downstream enterprises were re-opened, logistics network improved and more goods were delivered. However, WHO raised the level of global risk alert as the conditions were getting worse outside of China. International oil prices plunged. The commodity market moved down. Rubber prices dropped.

As of February 27, the weekly average price of NR futures on the SHFE was RMB 11,445/mt, down RMB 175/mt or 1.51% from last week. The weekly average price of NR2004 was RMB 9,704/mt, down RMB 61/mt or 0.62% from last week.

3. Market Forecast

NR market followed the movements of commodity market, and fluctuated downwards. The production resumed gradually in China’s downstream industries, the logistics services had recovered, and the demand was growing slowly. However, the disease was spreading, which raised concerns in the global market. International oil prices kept falling, dragging down the commodity market. Rubber prices were low already, and the rubber tapping had stopped in major producing countries, which somehow supported the market. In the coming weeks, market players should pay attention to the recovering of demand and to some policies used by the governments to stimulate the economic activities. In the short run, NR market will continue to fluctuate at a low level.

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