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Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Rubber weaknesses are temporarily difficult to change

After falling for three days in a row last week, on Tuesday (June 19th), rubber futures prices showed a reversal of Powei’s collapse. The main contract once fell below its intraday limit, refreshing its new low since mid-September 2016, making long-term bargain-hunting much more confident. Pressure. Market participants pointed out that the current pressure on rubber supply is still large, and the overall demand is weak. It is expected that the price of Hujiao will be dominated by weaker shocks in the short term.

Recapitulate Poe Pod

After falling for many days in a row, the rubber futures prices of the previous period did not show any sign of a drop, but instead, the global trading situation changed dramatically.

Judging from the disk, on June 19th, the price of Hujiao opened lower and lower, with the opening of the main 1809 contract falling by more than 1%, gradually decreasing from 10,685 yuan/ton during the day, further decreasing in the afternoon, and hitting the daily limit in the afternoon, creating a 2016 The new low since September 14th, although the late fall slightly converged, it eventually fell 5.74%, to 10,190 yuan / ton.

At this point, the price of the main contract fell for the fourth consecutive day. Prior to June 8-15, Hujiao’s main 1809 contract fell for the fifth day on the 6th, including a sharp drop of 2.31% and 4.96 on the 8th and the 13th respectively. %, plus the Pooh collapse on the 19th, in just 7 trading days, RU1809 has fallen a total of 1,515 yuan / ton, a drop of up to 12.94%.

It is worth noting that, yesterday Hujiao main 1809 contract positions significantly reduced by 33,202 hands, trading volume increased by 308,000 hands to 729,000 hands.

In terms of the far-month contract, trading volumes of RU1901 and RU1905 were all in excess of 10,000 lots, and daily gains were at around 800 lots. The two contracts also fell sharply by 4.37% and 4% respectively, indicating that the market is still pessimistic about the outlook.

In terms of spot, according to market sources, on the 19th, the natural rubber market in Shanghai sealed up. The reference price for all latex in 2017 was 10,200 yuan/ton, and the reference price for all latex in 2016 was 9,800 yuan/ton.

“Hujiao hits new lows, and businesses return after the holiday to wait and see. There are few active bids and real ones to negotiate.” Industry sources said that the current price of rubber is at a relatively low level, and business profit margins are limited. They also suppress the enthusiasm of selling goods. The market was weak.

Shocks weakened mainly

Market participants believe that there are many uncertain factors in the current global trade situation, and the impact on global economic growth prospects is unknown. For the rubber market, supply is increasing, demand is still weak, and the supply and demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that rubber prices will be in the future. Will continue weak oscillation pattern.

“The market worried about trade risks, Hujiao fundamental weakness, once again become a short target of the main blow, the main contract on the 19th once fell to the intraday, far month contract fell more than 4%.” CCB futures yesterday after the comments that the current The fundamentals of rubber have not changed much. In terms of supply side, Thailand’s output is relatively stable, and the expected increase in output is still the main demand. In terms of demand, the May SUV growth rate has been surpassed by the sedan for the first time. The future growth rate of passenger vehicles may further decline. The start of the plant is expected to increase slowly. In addition, the rubber inventory pressure is still large, warehouse receipts increased by 27% year-on-year, bonded warehouse inventory also grew off-season. On the whole, the agency expects Hujiao to continue to be dominated by volatility and weakness, suggesting that investors rebound short-selling.

Hua Ran futures researcher Yuan Ran also said that the market worried about the slowdown in global economic growth, suppressing the popularity of the commodity market, affecting the trend of Hujiao. At present, the fundamentals of rubber are not good, natural rubber enters a period of increase in output, and the supply of new rubber is expected to increase, and the inventory of warehouse receipts in the previous period continues to grow, which constitutes a significant suppression of the plastic market. At the same time as supply was abundant, the demand for downstream factories performed flatly.

Yuan Ran believes that from a technical point of view, the short-term Hujiao price is expected to continue to oscillate downward, need to pay attention to when the 10,000 yuan / ton mark is broken, but after the continuous decline in the market there are also certain technical rebound requirements, follow-up Hujiao prices It is expected to rebound to around 10,700 yuan/ton.

Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/44236.html

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