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Sunday, October 24, 2021

Butadiene: 2018 market is difficult to hide the trend of 2019 new capacity supply is difficult to set

Looking back on 2018, the butadiene market experienced twists and turns. At the beginning of 2018, with the price increase of Sinopec sales company and the surge in Asian external disk prices, butadiene appeared to rise sharply until the middle and late February, and then fell. Affected by the Sino-US trade war, butadiene prices once approached the annual low.¬†However, since July, affected by factors such as the shutdown of many domestic factories and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate caused by Sino-US trade wars, some merchants have exported butadiene to South Korea for profit, and domestic butadiene prices have begun to rise.¬†However, after the third quarter, the price of butadiene in Asia’s outer disk fell sharply. The domestic market’s import supply became possible again. The butadiene price fell again. The Sino-US trade war has not disappeared. The downstream rubber and ABS manufacturers. The trading volume was light and the purchase of raw materials became more cautious. The domestic price of butadiene gradually fell to the low point of the year.

According to Zhongyu Information, there are 28 butadiene producers in China with an annual production capacity of 3.915 million tons, including a total capacity of 670,000 tons per year in Northeast China, a total capacity of 335,000 tons per year in North China, and a total capacity of 153 in East China. 10,000 tons / year, the total production capacity in South China is 675,000 tons / year, the total capacity in the northwest region is 375,000 tons / year, and the total capacity in the southwest region is 150,000 tons / year.

At the same time, in 2018, China’s new production capacity of butadiene totaled 215,000 tons, including CNOOC Shell Phase II 145,000 tons/year extraction unit, and Inner Mongolia Jiutai Energy 70,000 tons/year butene oxidation dehydrogenation unit, including Zhonghai Shell Phase II The diene plant has been completed in the first half of the year, and as of November, the installation process of Jiutai Energy has been opened.

In 2019, the domestic new butadiene capacity increase plan is relatively limited. Among them, Inner Mongolia Jiutai Energy’s 70,000 tons/year butene oxidation dehydrogenation unit is expected to start operation in late 18th and early 19th, while Nanjing Chengzhi Yongqing and other enterprises The driving time of the diene unit has not been clarified, and the increase in the supply surface alone is relatively limited.

Moreover, domestic environmental protection and security efforts will remain at a relatively high level in 2019. This will not be a negative effect on the downstream terminal operating rate, plus the impact of the Sino-US trade war, and the overall domestic market demand will decrease. Yu analysis believes that butadiene will remain at a weaker level in 2019, and the turning point will exist in the new changes in the Sino-US trade pattern.

Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/47736.html

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