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Sunday, September 24, 2023

Rubber weekly

On the supply side, the main producing areas in Southeast Asia are in low-yield areas, the supply of raw materials is tight, and the purchase price is high. The supplier said that the processing cost is near the cost line, and it is not intended to be low. The supply of cargo in the near future is tight, and the price of US dollar cargo is firm. The outer disk is upside down in a narrow range, and the market is buying less gas, paying attention to the rainfall situation in the production area. In the domestic market, in terms of spot, the futures market oscillated weakly. On April 1st, the VAT rate was lowered, the import cost fell, and the traders slowed down the shipping pace. However, due to the possibility of concentrated shipments in April, the spot market pressure may be lower. Big, the tire factory just needs replenishment, the demand is stable; the production area, Hainan production area is still cut, and the Yunnan production area is cut. Basis, mixed rubber 05 contract basis is near -400, the shock is strong, the market turnover is good, the tire factory just needs to replenish, pay attention to the tire factory inquiry, the whole latex base is 1905 contract premium 700, full latex base The difference is narrow and fluctuating, and the transaction is general. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the basis trend of the spot and the strength of the transaction. The spread, 9-5 spread is at 280, a narrow range of shocks, 1-9 spreads pulled above 1200, you can try to intervene in the positive set. Substitute, the spread of natural rubber and synthetic spreads fluctuated within a narrow range, the supply side was under pressure, the butadiene market was weak, and the downstream demand increased in general. It is expected that the short-term synthetic rubber market will fluctuate downward. On the demand side, the operating rate of the tire factory is generally stable, but driven by the downward price of raw materials of rubber (11795, -145.00, -1.21%), the attitude of tire dealers and agents to accept the price increase of tires is gradually becoming negative, and some tire manufacturers are finished. Inventory has gradually increased. In the short term, due to the downward adjustment of the VAT rate, the spot price is firm. However, the market may have concentrated shipments in April. The spot market pressure may be greater. Focus on the rainfall in the production area and the 1-5 price difference. The operation suggests that the Tianjiao 1905 contract will wait and see.

Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/48168.html

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