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Thursday, September 28, 2023

Rubber prices stabilized in the short term after the opening of the new contract in September

The Tokyo morning RSS1909 contract opened at 183.8 yen, up 0.1 yen from the previous trading day. The TSR1909 contract opened at 163.7 yen, up 1.5 yen from the previous trading day. The USD/JPY exchange rate was around 110.5 in the morning.

Yesterday’s Tokyo rubber market listed on the new September contract, which was opened at 1.1 yen from the August contract. At the close, the premium difference returned to 1.5 yen. Thailand’s import and export data released last weekend showed that the overall export of natural rubber in Thailand fell by 8% in February compared with the same period of last year. The market demand decreased, and the low enthusiasm for spot buying was the main reason for the decrease in export volume. Some of China’s production areas began to enter the preparatory stage before the opening, and at the same time, the futures prices fell sharply. After entering this week, the spot prices also fell, mainly because the high rubber stocks always suppressed the price. It is expected that the domestic production areas will enter 5 After the month, the output can basically return to the level before the production cut-off period. In addition, the imported rubber will be concentrated in Hong Kong after April, and the supply pressure may once again suppress the futures market price. The same situation also appears in the Tokyo market. It is expected that the inventory of the Tokyo Stock Exchange will rise to 13,000 tons by the end of March. At that time, the delivery pressure may cause the near-month contract to fall further below 170 yen at the beginning of April, and the long-term contract can maintain 180. The integer value of the yen line depends on the extent of the price self-discipline rebound in the remaining trading days of this week.

In terms of spot, the March FOB price of No. 3 tobacco on March 25 was around 56.37 baht, up 0.38 baht from the previous trading day. The No. 20 standard rubber FOB price was around 49.38 baht, up 1.25 baht from the previous trading day. The USS spot price was around 48 baht, unchanged from the previous trading day.

In terms of technology, the price of RSS far-month has stabilized after a sharp drop. The external market is full of bad materials, and the internal market needs some time to digest the pressure on technical indicators. In the short term, the far-month contract may rebound to the 190 yen line. The ideal price trend is limited to return to the vicinity of 188 yen this weekend. From the position, the August contract reduced the margin by more than the September contract. It is expected that the overall position will not be restored until April, and the trading strategy can be short-selled near the 190 yen.

The spread between the 1908 month contract and the Shanghai 1909 month contract (Tokyo-Shanghai) at the close of Tokyo on March 26 was -87 USD/ton.

Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/48194.html

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