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India Rupee Review: Ends steady on continuous dollar sales by RBI

Informist, Wednesday, Oct 12, 2022

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended steady against the greenback today as continuous sales of the greenback by the Reserve Bank of India offset the impact of persistent dollar purchases by oil marketing companies and importers, dealers said.

 

After moving in a range of 21 paise throughout the day, the rupee ended at 82.3150 a dollar, against 82.3125 a dollar on Tuesday.

 

The Indian currency opened slightly stronger at 82.2750 a dollar as prices of crude oil settled 2% lower on Tuesday, dealers said. 

 

Crude prices fell on Tuesday as fears over recession and a flare-up in COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns over global demand. A fall in the prices of crude oil decreases India’s import bill, which subsequently supports the Indian currency.

 

At 1630 IST, the November contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $94.68 a barrel as against $94.29 a bbl on Tuesday. On Monday, the November contract had settled at $96.19 a bbl.

 

Two hours into the trade, the Indian currency breached the immediate resistance of 82.20 a dollar and jumped to the day’s high of 82.15 a dollar as foreign banks, including a US-based bank, sold dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. 

 

However, gradually it erased all gains and moved to the day’s low of 82.3675 a dollar, as banks stepped in to purchase dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and importers, dealers said. 

 

Dealers said importers and oil marketing companies bought dollars to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels.

 

“Importers came in aggressively once the support of 82.20 was broken,” a dealer with a state-owned bank said. 

 

Dealers said losses in the domestic unit were limited as some state-owned banks sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India around the 82.35-per-dollar level. 

 

“Rupee was stable for the second consecutive day as RBI ensured it did not weaken beyond 82.36 today,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. “It (USDINR) made a low of 82.16 before buying by oil companies took the USDINR up to 82.36 levels.”

 

Meanwhile, the dollar remained firm ahead of the US CPI inflation data for September, due on Thursday. The data is expected to show price pressures remained elevated in the world’s largest economy during the month. This weighed on the local currency, dealers said.

 

At 1630 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 113.20 compared with 113.22 on Tuesday. It was at 113.14 on Monday.

 

A rise in domestic share indices supported sentiment for the Indian unit, dealers said. Today, both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex ended 0.8% higher each.

 

 AT 1530 ISTAT 0900 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)Spot rupee per $182.315082.275082.150082.367582.3125

 

FORWARDS

Premiums on dollar/rupee forward contracts ended off the day’s lows because gains in the rupee prompted banks and importers to buy dollars for forward delivery, dealers said.

 

Premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was 234.47 paise, against 234.72 paise on Tuesday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.83%, against the previous close of 2.85%.

 

Earlier in the day, premiums fell sharply as exporters persistently sold dollars for forward delivery, dealers said. 

 

Traders received forwards due to expectation that premiums may ease further as the differential between Indian and US bond yields may narrow going ahead.

 

OUTLOOK
On Thursday, the rupee will take cues from overnight movement in the dollar index after the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting later today, dealers said. 

 

The currency will also take cues from movement in crude oil prices, dealers said. 

 

“The RBI has ensured the rupee closes around the 82.32 level for three sessions now,” a dealer with a state-owned bank said. “However, it will be interesting to see the RBI’s intervention strategy once the US CPI data comes out.”

 

Dealers expect the RBI to continue its intervention through dollar sales to protect the rupee from depreciating beyond the psychologically-crucial level of 83 per dollar.

 

They see immediate technical support at 82.40 a dollar. During the day, the rupee is seen at 82.10-82.60 a dollar.

 

India Rupee: Pares all gains as bks buy dlrs for oil cos, importers

 

 AT 1327 ISTAT 0900 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)Spot rupee per $182.320082.275082.150082.3450

82.3125

 

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee pared all gains made early today against the greenback as banks stepped in to purchase dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and importers, dealers said. 

 

Dealers said importers and oil marketing companies bought dollars to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels.

 

Earlier in the day, the Indian unit rose to the day’s high of 82.1500 a dollar, as foreign banks, including a US-based bank, sold dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. 

 

However, volumes in the currency market were lower than usual as traders remained cautious and avoided placing fresh bets ahead of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting, due for release later today, dealers said. 

 

Market participants are also cautious ahead of the release of the US CPI inflation data for September, due on Thursday.

 

For the rest of the day, the Indian unit is seen moving in the range of 82.2000-82.6000 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

India Rupee-Asia FX: Most dn; S Korean won up post policy rate hike

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar today ahead of the US CPI inflation data for September, due on Thursday. The instability in the UK bond market further strengthened the dollar globally.   

 

At 1010 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 113.27 compared with 113.22 on Tuesday. It was at 113.14 on Monday.

 

Bucking the trend, however, the South Korean won rose 0.5% against the dollar after the Bank of Korea raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3% earlier today amid high inflation and a weakening currency.  (Kabir Sharma and Ananya Chaudhuri)

India Rupee: Largely steady on caution before FOMC minutes, US CPI

 

 AT 0940 ISTAT 0900 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)Spot rupee per $182.305082.275082.275082.345082.3125

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee was largely steady against the greenback today because traders exercised caution and avoided placing fresh bets ahead of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting, due for release later today, dealers said. 

 

The minutes of the Fed’s meeting are expected to provide insight into the central bank’s position on monetary policy tightening and cues on future rate hikes.

 

Market participants are also cautious ahead of the release of the US CPI inflation data for September, due on Thursday, which is expected to show price pressures remained elevated in the world’s largest economy during the month. 

 

At 0940 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 113.43 compared with 113.22 on Tuesday. It was at 113.14 on Monday.

 

Meanwhile, a rise in domestic equity indices supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0940 IST, both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were 0.4% higher. 

 

“The rupee should stay in a consolidated range of 82.20-82.35 (a dollar) today as well,” a dealer with a state-owned bank said, adding that 82.20 a dollar is seen as a strong resistance for the rupee.

 

Dealers have pegged immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 82.20 a dollar and immediate support at 82.40 a dollar. 

 

For the rest of the day, the Indian unit is seen moving in the range of 82.2000-82.6000 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee – Oct 12

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee, as forecasted by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

Participants

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

Big state-owned bank82.6582.25State-owned bank82.6082.20State-owned bank82.5582.15Private bank82.5582.20Private bank82.6082.10Foreign bank82.6082.05Brokerage firm82.6082.00

 

(Kabir Sharma and Aiswarya Santhosh)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

 

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© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2022. All rights reserved.

Source: Cogencis

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