© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Mexico’s Central Bank (Banco de Mexico) is seen at its building in downtown Mexico City, Mexico August 9, 2022. REUTERS/Henry Romero/File Photo
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexican headline inflation is forecast to have slowed slightly in the first half of October, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, though it likely did not fall enough to alter the monetary policy tightening cycle embarked on by the Bank of Mexico.
The median forecast of 15 analysts projected annual headline inflation at 8.62%, down from 8.64% in the second half of September.
Inflation has blown past the Bank of Mexico’s target rate of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point, prompting the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate by 525 basis points to 9.25% during the current hiking cycle, which began in June 2021.
The bank’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for Nov. 10. Analysts anticipate another 75 basis point interest rate hike, according to a survey released this week by Citibanamex, with the rate expected to hit 10.50% by year-end.
Annual core inflation, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to reach 8.31%, according to the survey.
Mexican consumer prices are estimated to have increased by 0.52% in the first half of October compared to the previous half-month period, with core inflation seen rising 0.36%.
Mexico’s national statistics agency INEGI will publish consumer price data for the first half of October on Monday.