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India Rupee Review: Reverses gains as oil cos, importers buy dollars

Informist, Tuesday, Nov 29, 2022

 

By Aiswarya Santhosh and Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – The rupee pared all gains and closed slightly lower against the dollar today due to persistent dollar purchases by oil marketing companies and importers, dealers said.

 

After touching a high of 81.5600 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 81.7200 a dollar, as against 81.6700 on Monday.

 

The rupee opened the day 9 paise higher at 81.5800 a dollar, tracking a recovery in the Chinese yuan in offshore trade, dealers said.

 

In offshore trade, the yuan recovered and went on to rise sharply against the dollar after a statement from the Chinese government said experts from the National Health Commission and two other agencies involved in disease control and prevention would speak at a COVID press conference 1230 IST today, raising hopes of the country’s strict zero-COVID policy being eased.

 

“China has been following and closely watching the virus as it evolves and mutates,” and official said at the press conference. Chinese health authorities reported a spike in rate of vaccination of seniors, which is regarded as crucial to reopening the economy that has been facing irregular lockdowns. 

 

On Monday, the offshore Chinese yuan fell to an over two-week low after protests against strict COVID-19 curbs broke out in the country.

 

As the rupee touched the day’s high of 81.5600 a dollar, state-owned banks stepped in to purchase dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and importers, after which the rupee erased some gains, dealers said.

 

Oil importers purchased dollars to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said.

 

“The pressure is on the buying side as there’s demand for dollars noting attractive levels,” said a dealer with a foreign bank.

 

For the past two weeks, the rupee has been trading within a narrow range of 81.50-81.90 against the dollar.

 

“If you see the level, for the last few days it has been around this level only, anything above 81.50 and below 81.90, it’s stagnating there,” said a dealer with a private bank.

 

Rise in crude oil prices also weighed on the rupee. Crude oil prices rose over 2% today as speculation over whether China will roll back its COVID-19 regulations mounted.

 

Oil markets are likely to be driven by the decision of the Group of Seven nations on fixing a price cap on Russian oil and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting on Sunday.

 

At 1624 IST, the February contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $85.96 a barrel against $83.89 a bbl on Monday. Prices were at $83.71 a bbl on Friday.

 

Meanwhile, a fall in the dollar index during European trading hours supported the rupee. The dollar index erased some of the gains from Monday because of a rise in the euro.

 

The euro rose after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that euro zone inflation had not peaked and it risked turning out even higher than currently expected, hinting at a series of interest rate hikes ahead.

 

At 1624 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 106.22 as against 106.68 on Monday. On Friday, it was at 105.96.

 

As oil importers stepped up their dollar purchases, the rupee fell to the day’s low of 81.7425 a dollar.

 

Rise in domestic share indices also supported the rupee. Both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex closed 0.3% higher each.

 

 AT 1530 ISTAT 0900 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)Spot rupee per $181.720081.580081.560081.742581.6700

 

FORWARDS

Premiums on dollar/rupee forwards rose as banks bought dollars for forward delivery at relatively low levels after a sharp fall in premiums earlier this week, dealers said.

 

Premium on the one-year, exact-period dollar/rupee forward contract was at 161.20 paise as against 160.00 paise on Monday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 1.97% against the previous close of 1.96%.

 

On Monday, the one-year dollar/rupee forward hit a fresh 11-year low, the lowest since October 2011, as banks and exporters sold the greenback for forward delivery on the view that the differential between Indian and US yields may continue to narrow, dealers said.

 

Market participants said the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee may stop rate hikes at a terminal repo rate of 6.50%, implying a further rate hike of 60 basis points, while the terminal interest rate for the US Federal Reserve is seen around 5.00%, factoring in rate hikes of at least another 100 bps.

 

Premiums on forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries. A rise in interest rates in the US would ensure that the spread with rates in India narrows further.

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from overnight movement in the dollar index and crude oil prices, dealers said.

 

“Despite hawkish comments by a few Fed officials, dollar index is in a fall and any upside is getting sold. Major support is at 104.65, which, if broken, could send it tumbling down to 100 levels,” said a dealer with a brokerage firm.

 

The market is now waiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s address on Wednesday and US jobs data on Friday for further clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy path going ahead.

 

Dealers peg technical support for the rupee at 81.90 a dollar and long-term resistance at 81.20 a dollar.

 

During the day, the rupee is seen at 81.40-81.90 a dollar.

 India Rupee – World FX: Australian dlr up 1% as China COVID woes ease

 

 AT 1514 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUSGBP/USD 1.20141.20641.19511.1958EUR/USD 1.03701.03941.03341.0334NZD/USD 0.62340.62440.61610.6155AUD/USD 0.67240.67430.66400.6646USD/JPY 138.0100139.3530137.9290138.9220USD/CAD 1.34501.35011.34091.3493EUR/JPY 143.1140144.0220143.1100143.6500CHF/USD 1.05161.05701.05111.0536EUR/CHF 0.98610.98640.98130.9809

 

MUMBAI – The Australian dollar rose 1.4% against the US dollar as hope that the unrest in China would lead to easing of the country’s zero-COVID policy boosted sentiment for the Australian unit.

 

An easing of COVID restrictions in China supports the Australian currency as latter is the Asian country’s largest trading partner.

 

Risk sentiment improved also as China’s securities regulator lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property.

 

The euro gained 0.4% after European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos noted that the central bank must continue to monitor underlying inflation.

 

Market participants await eurozone inflation data scheduled to be released Wednesday.

 

The dollar index fell tracking gains in the euro and the Australian dollar.

 

At 1514 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 106.32 as against 106.68 on Monday. On Friday, it was at 105.96.

 

The pound sterling rose 0.6% against the dollar after UK’s Producers price index for October was revised upward by 0.3%.

 

Now, market participants are eyeing at US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday for further cues on the pace of Fed rate hikes. (Kabir Sharma)

India Rupee: Erases gain as bks persistently buy dlrs for importers

 

 AT 1316 ISTAT 0900 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)Spot rupee per $181.695081.580081.560081.740081.6700

 

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee erased all gains and fell slightly against the dollar as banks persistently bought greenbacks on behalf of importers, said dealers.

 

Dealers said buying by banks mostly on behalf of oil importers weighed on the Indian currency. 

 

“The pressure is on the buying side as there’s demand for dollars noting attractive (lower rupee) levels,” said a dealer from a foreign bank.

 

However, a recovery in offshore Chinese yuan restricted the losses on the Indian unit.

 

Further, weakness in the dollar index also aided the Indian currency. At 1316 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 106.39 compared with 106.68 on Monday. It was at 105.96 on Friday.

 

Exporters are waiting to sell at the levels around 81.70-81.75, said a dealer from a state-owned bank. 

 

The immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 81.90 a dollar and resistance at 81.40, dealers said.

 

The rupee is expected to trade in the 81.40-81.90 range for the rest of the day, dealers said. (Ananya Chaudhuri)

India Rupee: Up tracking recovery in yuan, rise in local shrs

 

 AT 1012 ISTAT 0900 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)Spot rupee per $181.622581.580081.560081.665081.6700

 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar today tracking a recovery in the Chinese yuan in offshore trade, dealers said. 

 

The Chinese currency recovered as the Hang Seng Index was up 2.2% after daily COVID-19 cases fell marginally in China. On Monday, the offshore Chinese yuan had fallen to over a two-week low after protests against strict COVID-19 curbs broke out in the country. 

 

Gains in domestic equities also supported the Indian currency, dealers said. At 1012 IST, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.4% each.

 

However, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies, which restricted the gains in the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

Oil importers purchased dollars to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. 

 

Moreover, the dollar index reversed its losses and rose overnight due to hawkish comments by US Federal Reserve officials. This also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed needs to raise interest rates a bit more and then hold them there throughout the next year to bring inflation within the Fed’s target of 2%.

 

At 1015 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 106.30 as against 106.68 on Monday. On Friday, it was at 105.96.

 

“A similar range of 81.50-81.90 may persist today as well,” a dealer with a state-owned bank said. “Exporters may sell (at) around 81.80.”

 

The immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 81.90 a dollar and resistance at 81.40, dealers said.

 

The rupee is expected to trade in the 81.40-81.90 range for the rest of the day, dealers said.  (Kabir Sharma and Pratiksha) 

India Rupee-Asia FX: Most up tracking gains in local equities

 

NEW DELHI – Most of the Asian currencies traded up against the US dollar tracking strong domestic equities Indices after China’s property stocks rallied as regulators stepped up support for the embattled real estate sector.

 

Moreover, China’s securities regulator lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property. 

 

Offshore-Chinese yuan was up 0.4% against the dollar as Hang Seng index was up 2.2% as daily COVID cases fell marginally in China.

South Korean won was up 1% against the greenback as the country invoked tough strike-busting law to end six-day long protest by the truck drivers.

 

South Korea’s benchmark equity index Kospi was up 0.4%. 

 

Thai baht gained 0.2% against the greenback as the market bets on another 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Thailand as the price pressure remained high in Thailand. 

 

Taiwan dollar and the Philippine Pesos were also up 0.2% each against the greenback. (Ananya Chaudhuri)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee – Nov 29

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee today, as forecasted by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

ParticipantsSUPPORTRESISTANCEForeign bank81.9081.45Private bank 81.9081.50Brokerage firm81.9081.40Brokerage firm81.80

81.40

(Ananya Chaudhuri)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

 

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Send comments to [email protected]

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2022. All rights reserved.

Source: Cogencis

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