MOSCOW: Russia-focused agriculture consultancy Sovecon said on Wednesday that it had raised its forecast for Russia’s 2022/23 July-June wheat exports to 43.9 million tonnes from 43.7 million tonnes due to current active shipments.
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter. Its supplies are expected to be close to record highs in December subject to storms in its main Black Sea route.
“Current rapid exports are based on active sales since early October when Russian wheat started to regain its competitive edge,” Sovecon said in a note.
Sovecon expects Russia’s October-December wheat exports at 12.7 million tonnes, up 33% from the same period a year ago, the consultancy said.
However, Russian exports, according to Sovecon, will slow in late December-early 2023 due to recent falls in wheat prices in Chicago and Paris, competition with supplies from Ukraine, storms in the Black Sea, winter suspension of river navigation inside the country and a shortage of grain rail cars.
Lower supply from the European Union and potential weakening of the rouble currency against the dollar will support Russian wheat exports later in the second half of the season, the consultancy added.