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New York Fed Finds 1-Year Inflation Expectations at Lowest Since 2021

New York Fed Finds 1-Year Inflation Expectations at Lowest Since 2021

(Bloomberg) — US household expectations for inflation in the year ahead fell last month to the lowest level since August 2021, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey.

Households in November said they expected inflation to be 5.2% over the coming 12 months, down from 5.7% the month before, according to results of the New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations published Monday. Expected inflation three years and five years ahead also fell.

Fed officials have been aggressively tightening monetary policy this year in a bid to keep expectations in check, even as actual inflation has soared to the highest levels in four decades. Investors and economists widely anticipate they will raise their benchmark interest rate above 4% for the first time since 2008 on Wednesday, following a two-day policy meeting in Washington.

Lower expected inflation in the New York Fed survey in November coincided with government reports published last month showing that price pressures may be beginning to ease. The consumer price index rose 7.7% in the 12 months through October, marking the lowest reported inflation rate since January.

The Labor Department is set to publish November CPI numbers Tuesday. Forecasters expect it to moderate further, to 7.3%, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg poll.

Households in the New York Fed survey saw gas prices rising 4.7% over the coming year. Food prices were expected to rise 8.3%, while rents were seen going up 9.8%.

 

Source: Investing.com

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