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India Rupee Review: Ends down as importers buy dlrs, local shrs slump

Informist, Friday, Dec 23, 2022

 

By Ananya Chaudhuri

 

NEW DELHI – After moving in a thin range of 12 paise throughout the day, the rupee settled lower against the greenback as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, and domestic equity indices slumped to a two-month low, dealers said.

 

Today, the rupee ended at 82.8575 a dollar compared to 82.7625 a dollar on Thursday.

 

The Indian currency opened slightly lower against the greenback as the dollar strengthened globally after upbeat economic data in the US reinforced the expectation that the US Federal Reserve would continue its monetary policy tightening for a longer period. 

 

The revised estimate of US GDP growth for Jul-Sep stood at 3.2%, against the market expectation of 2.9%.

 

Further, data released on Thursday showed initial jobless claims in the US rose to 216,000, below the market estimate of 222,000, which pointed to a tight job market in the world’s largest economy. 

 

The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 425 basis points this year from near zero to a 4.25-4.50% range, the highest since late 2007.

 

At 1645 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 104.21 as against 104.43 on Thursday. It was at 104.20 on Wednesday. 

 

Moreover, some banks stepped in to buy the greenback on behalf of importers, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said.

 

Crude oil prices rose over 2% today as lower Russian crude exports from the Baltic region in December offset concerns that an impending snowstorm across the US might weigh on fuel demand this holiday season.

 

A rise in crude oil prices increases India’s import bill, which weighs on the currency. At 1645 IST, the February contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $82.30 a barrel as against $80.98 on Thursday. Prices were at $82.20 on Wednesday.

 

A slump in domestic equity indices also weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. The Sensex and the Nifty 50 both ended at two-month lows and were down 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively. Worries about a resurgence of COVID-19 hammered markets, already reeling under growth and inflation concerns. 

 

Some banks sold the US currency on behalf of exporters at around 82.85 a dollar, which limited losses for the rupee, dealers said.

 

“Some exporters sold around the 82.88-82.85 (a dollar) but not too much,” dealers said. “Most exporters have covered already, and the rest who are on the sidelines are waiting for the below 82.90 levels.”

 

Dealers said that overall, banks bought the greenback for importers at every dip in dollar/rupee levels, which kept the Indian unit under pressure.

 

Volumes in the currency market were subdued because foreign banks stayed on the sidelines to close their books of accounts in the last month of the calendar year, dealers said.

 

“It is a holiday season, so volumes naturally are dull due to low participation of foreign banks,” a dealer from a foreign bank said. “The next week will also be no different.”

 

 AT 1530 ISTAT 0900 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)Spot rupee per $182.857582.800082.767582.882582.7625

 

FORWARDS

Premiums on dollar/rupee forwards ended at an over five-week-high today as state-owned banks bought dollars for delivery later, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. 

 

Noting the sharp fall in forward premiums over the past few months, the central bank bought the greenback to make carry trades attractive for foreign portfolio investors, dealers said.

 

A carry trade is a trading strategy that involves borrowing at a low interest rate and investing in an asset that provides a higher rate of return. 

 

Earlier this month, premiums on one-year dollar/rupee forwards slumped to their lowest in over 13 years. This was due to persistent sale of the greenback for forward delivery by banks and exporters on the view that the interest rate differential between Indian and US debt would continue to narrow, and also due to a dollar crunch in the global financial system, dealers said.

 

Dealers cited RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra’s comments at the December Monetary Policy outcome. “Governor has given specific assurance on the exchange rate and the external sector, so we see the premiums rising,” he had said. 

 

At 1423 IST, the premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was 182.93 paise, against 178.70 paise on Thursday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.21%, against 2.16% from the previous close. The premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract rose to an over five-week high of 2.23% earlier today.

 

OUTLOOK 

On Monday, the Indian unit will take cues from overnight movement in the dollar index after the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure index later today, dealers said. A poll by Reuters projected that the index might rise by 0.2% in November, against 0.3% in October.  

 

The local unit will also take cues from the movement in prices of crude oil, dealers said. 

 

Volumes in the currency market may remain muted as foreign banks stay on the sidelines to close their books of accounts in the last month of the calendar year, dealers said.

 

Dealers see immediate technical support for the Indian currency at 82.90 a dollar.

During the day, the rupee is seen at 82.50-82.90 a dollar.

India Rupee – World FX: Dollar firm globally post strong US econ data

 

 AT 1558 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUSGBP/USD 1.20641.20751.20191.2044EUR/USD 1.06201.06301.05871.0596NZD/USD 0.62970.62980.62340.6204AUD/USD 0.67060.67070.66610.6643USD/JPY 132.6130132.8130132.1580132.3490USD/CAD 1.36031.36661.36031.3597EUR/JPY 140.8140140.8995140.0800140.2300CHF/USD 1.07521.07551.07211.0737EUR/CHF 0.98760.98980.98580.9865

 

MUMBAI – The dollar remained firm globally as strong economic data reaffirmed the view that the US Federal Reserve will continue with its rate hikes for a prolonged period.

 

The number of US citizens filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased less than expected last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 216,000 in the week ended Dec 17, Labour Department data showed on Thursday. This was below the estimate of 222,000.

 

Further, US GDP expanded 3.2% on year in the third quarter. The key data point was above the 2.9% estimate from a month ago.

 

At 1558 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 104.26 against 104.43 on Thursday. It was at 104.16 on Wednesday. The index rose to as much as 104.60 on Thursday.

 

The yen was down 0.3% against the dollar after Japan’s core consumer price index rose 3.7% on year in November. It had risen 3.6% in October. The rise in November was the biggest since the jump of 4.0% in December 1981 when inflation was still high from the impact of the 1979 oil shock and booming economy.

 

Investors remain cautious noting a surge in COVID-19 cases in China. Apart from this, ongoing geopolitical risks could drive some safe haven flows towards the greenback.

 

In fact, Russia said on Wednesday that there is no chance of peace talks and that the continued supply of arms to Ukraine by Western allies would lead to deepening of the ongoing conflict.

 

Market participants are now waiting for data on US personal consumption expenditure in November, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The data is due later today. (Kabir Sharma) 

 

India Rupee: In thin band amid low volume; importers’ dlr buys weigh

 

 AT 1441 ISTAT 0900 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)Spot rupee per $182.867582.800082.767582.882582.7625

 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee traded in a thin band against the dollar amid low volumes, as foreign banks stayed on the sidelines ahead of closing their books of accounts for the year, dealers said.

 

Volumes were lacklustre owing to sluggish trade in the US due to the holiday season, they added. 

 

The rupee moved in a thin range of 12 paise so far today. 

 

Some banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers during the day, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. 

“Overall, the rupee will remain on the downside, importers were buying (dollars) in the market on dips (in dollar/rupee),” said a dealer with a state-owned bank. “However, it will remain range-bound due to thin volumes.”

 

A slump in domestic equities also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1441 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were down over 1.3% each.

 

On the other side, some banks sold dollars on behalf of exporters around the 82.85 a dollar level, which limited losses in the Indian unit, dealers said.

 

Market participants now await data on US personal consumption expenditure in November, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The data is due to be released later today. 

 

Dealers have pegged immediate technical support for the rupee at 82.90 a dollar.

 

The rupee is seen moving in the range of 82.60-82.90 for the rest of the day, dealers said. (Aiswarya Santhosh)

India Rupee:Premiums at 5-wk high as bks buy fwd dlrs, likely for RBI

 

 AT 1422 ISTAT 0900 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)Spot rupee per $182.845082.800082.767582.882582.76251-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)180.20178.70184.60178.70178.70

 

NEW DELHI – Premiums on dollar/rupee forwards hit an over five-week-high today as state-owned banks bought dollars for delivery later, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. 

 

Keeping in mind the sharp fall in forward premiums over the past few months, the central bank bought the greenback in order to make carry trades attractive for foreign portfolio investors, dealers said.

 

A carry trade is a trading strategy that involves borrowing at a low interest rate and investing in an asset that provides a higher rate of return. 

 

Earlier this month, premiums on the one-year dollar/rupee forwards slumped to their lowest level in over 13 years. This was due to persistent sale of the greenback for forward delivery by banks and exporters on the view that the interest rate differential between Indian and US debt may continue to narrow, and also due to dollar crunch in the global financial system, dealers said.

 

“The RBI had said during the policy that premiums will recover eventually, maybe that’s what is happening now,” a dealer with a big state-owned bank said. “Let’s see on what levels they are comfortable at. Exporters will also find these levels attractive now.”

 

Talking about the sharp fall in forward premiums, Deputy Governor Michael Patra said during the December Monetary Policy outcome, “there’s cash shortage in spot market, but that is now getting alleviated. If you see, the forward premiums are starting to correct today, so flows are coming back. Governor has given specific assurance on the exchange rate and the external sector, so we see the premiums rising.”

 

“The downfall was due to cash dollar shortage which seems to have gone away bringing paying in forwards market,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. 

 

At 1423 IST, the premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was 180.20 paise, against 178.70 paise on Thursday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.18%, against 2.16% from the previous close. Premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract rose to an over a five-week high of 2.23% earlier today. (Pratiksha)

India Rupee – Asia FX: Most dn as dollar rises on robust US econ data

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies fell as the dollar rose globally after strong economic data in the US led to expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue its monetary policy tightening for longer period. 

 

Data released on Thursday showed initial unemployment claims for the week ended Dec 17 rose to 216,000 in the US, below the market estimate of 222,000.

 

Further, US GDP increased 3.2% on year in Jul-Sep, the government said. This was above the 2.9% estimate from a month ago.

 

At 0952 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 104.33 as against 104.43 on Thursday. It was at 104.16 on Wednesday. The index rose to as much as 104.60 on Thursday. 

 

Moreover, fall in Asian equity indices also weighed on the currencies. KOSPI and PSEi indices were down by 1.4% and 0.5% respectively, at 0953 IST.

 

The won was down 0.5% against the greenback and was the worst performer among its Asian peers in early trade today.  

 

The Philippine peso and Taiwan dollar were down by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively against the US unit.

 

However, bucking the trend, the baht was 0.2% higher against the greenback.  (Ananya Chaudhuri)

India Rupee:A tad down as dlr gains globally post robust US econ data

 

 AT 0948 ISTAT 0900 ISTHIGHLOWPREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)Spot rupee per $182.802582.800082.767582.822582.7625

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar today after the greenback rose globally overnight, as strong US economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve might remain on its aggressive monetary policy tightening path for a longer period, dealers said.  

 

The number of US citizens filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased less than expected last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Dec 17. This was below the estimate of 222,000, Labour Department data showed on Thursday.

 

Further, US GDP expanded 3.2% on year in the third quarter, which also supported the dollar and weighed on the rupee. The key data point was above the 2.9% estimate from a month ago. 

 

“The rupee was pulled down by the dollar but selling (of dollars) may come in at 82.85 levels, which will support the rupee,” a dealer said. “Rupee will remain range-bound due to holiday season in the US leading to low volumes.” 

 

At 0953 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 104.42 as against 104.43 on Thursday. It was at 104.20 on Wednesday. The index rose to as much as 104.60 on Thursday.

 

A rise in crude oil prices also weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. Crude oil prices rose in early trade due to expectations of lower exports of Russian crude from the Baltic region in December. 

 

At 0953 IST, the February contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $81.69 a barrel as against $80.98 on Thursday. The price was at $82.20 on Wednesday.

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1001 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were down 0.9% each.

 

Market participants now await data on US personal consumption expenditure in November, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The data is due to be released later today.

 

Dealers have pegged immediate technical support for the rupee at 82.90 a dollar.

 

The rupee is seen moving in the range of 82.60-83.00 for the rest of the day, dealers said. (Kabir Sharma) 

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee – Dec 23

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee today, as forecasted by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

ParticipantsSUPPORTRESISTANCEState-owned bank83.2082.65Foreign bank83.1082.60Foreign bank82.9582.55Private bank82.9082.60Brokerage firm83.0282.68Brokerage firm83.20

82.60

Brokerage firm83.0582.55

(Aiswarya Santhosh)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

 

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Source: Cogencis

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