Fundamentals are not optimistic, rubber futures short-term rebound will be under pressure

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The recent rebound in oil has led to a rebound in the next day’s rubber . The market finally breathed a sigh of relief. The Wenhua Rubber Index 9430 has finally become a staged low support point, and rubber has once again returned to the familiar more than 10,000 yuan. As the current crude oil production reduction agreement is reached, although the details of the results are undecided, but the direction of the major has been fixed, oil may enter a more speculative stage, and energy products will continue to stabilize in the short term with oil stabilizing. Futures are also expected to benefit technically in the short term, and continue to open up the rebound space. However, because the fundamentals in the medium term are still not optimistic, the short-term rebound may play a role in the of the bottom range. The Wenhua Rubber Index is expected to form a bottom operating range of 9500-10800 The bottoming interval of the corresponding No. 20 glue will be between 7500-8800 of the Wenhua NR index.

1. Rubber imports are likely to weaken, and the cuts in the internal and external production areas will be extended

In terms of domestic imports, domestic imports fell to 2.45 million tons in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 5.77%. After reaching 2.79 million tons in 2017, they showed a downward trend for two consecutive years. Among them, the decline in the fourth quarter was obvious, and the total imports in three months were 61. 10,000 tons, down 18.7% year-on-year. The official data of monthly imports of in 2020 have not been updated yet, but according to statistics from the Information Company, China ’s imports of various types of rubber containing components were 840,200 tons in January-February 2020, a year-on-year increase of 40,100 tons, or an increase of 5.01%, but Considering that from March to April, the main production areas in Southeast Asia are in a state of cessation and the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia has escalated, Thailand has declared a state of emergency, and Thailand has experienced a severe drought. Southeast Asia’s production and exports may show a double decline, and domestic imports are also expected to enter a declining period.

In terms of domestic production, there are signs of delay in the cutting time of the Hainan production area. The current of the rubber tree is not good, the temperature in the early stage is relatively high, and there are problems with the rubber leaves in some production areas. There is a possibility of secondary defoliation, and even some powdery mildews in the production areas. It takes a period of time for new leaves to grow, and it is expected that the opening of the Hainan production area will be delayed until mid-May; the drought situation in the Yunnan production area is still severe. If it is not effectively alleviated, the opening may be postponed until mid-May to early June.

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Second, tire resumption is not satisfactory, the domestic export of are under pressure

Regarding the start of the downstream tire plant, after a two-month resumption process, the current tire operation has entered a stable period, and the resumption process has basically ended, but the result of the resumption is not as expected. The operating rate of all-steel tires started to reach more than 60% in the middle and late March, and the recent slight decline remained at 62.18%. The operating rate of semi-steel tires also reached more than 60% in the middle and late March, but the recent decline has been more obvious. To 58.36%, according to the resumption results, the current stability level is significantly lower than the same period in the past three years, the start situation is significantly weaker, and the tire industry will face great pressure this year.

In terms of tire production, in the first two months of 2020, domestic tire production was severely impacted, reaching only 80.87 million, a year-on-year decrease of 27.3%. The two-month production was only slightly higher than the single-month production level last year, although the data in March may There has been a recovery, but the degree of recovery is doubtful. It is reported that the domestic sales of downstream tires have been slow since this year, which has produced a reverse suppression of domestic tire production.

In terms of tire exports, due to the impact of the epidemic, official statistics in 2020 are not yet complete. Existing data shows that in February, tire exports were only 730,000, which was no longer able to compare with the level of 28.01 million in the same period last year, compared with normal monthly exports in recent years. More than 35 million, or even more than 40 million, cannot be compared. The data in March will still be ugly, and the current epidemic has erupted at multiple points around the world, including , the United States, , South Korea and other countries. There are more than 100 automobile factories in a state of suspension, and tire export demand may continue to face challenges in the short term.

In terms of terminal cars, after the sharp decline in January and the avalanche in February in 2020, the gradual warming of production and sales in March can finally relieve the already fragile industry. According to the latest data from the China Automobile Association, China’s total automobile production in March reached 1.422 million units, an increase of 399.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 44.5%; total sales reached 1.43 million units, an increase of 361.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 43.3%. Among them, the output of passenger cars in March was 1.049 million, an increase of 436.5% from the previous month, a decrease of 49.9% year-on-year, and the sales volume was 1.043 million, an increase of 365.8% from the previous month, a decrease of 48.4% from the same period last year. 2.684 million units and 2.877 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 48.7% and 45.4% respectively; March commercial vehicle production was 373,000 units, an increase of 317.6% month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%, and sales volume was 388,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 348.9%, a year-on-year decrease 22.6%, from January to March, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 790,000 and 794, 000 respectively, down 28.7% and 28.4% year-on-year.

3. The inventory in the zone hit a record high year-on-year, and the futures warehouse receipts were stable

Since mid-October 2019, domestic inventory in Qingdao has ended the six-month destocking situation and began to pick up. It maintains a rapid increase in the first quarter of 2020, and it has exceeded the high level of the same period last year. According to statistics from related information companies, as of 2020 On March 20, 2015, the general trade inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao reached 553,600 tons, a month-on-month increase (4.938 million tons on February 21, 2020), up 12.11%. The current inventory can meet domestic demand for about three months.

In terms of domestic futures stocks, rubber futures warehouse receipts have remained stable recently. Among them, warehouse receipts are currently maintained at about 236,000 tons, and the 20th rubber futures warehouse receipts continued to increase in March, and currently come to about 65,000 tons.

Fourth, OPEC + negotiations changed to G20 negotiations, oil prices and energy and chemical products oversold rebound

After the epic plunge of oil prices in the previous period, coupled with its own weak decline in January-February, the US crude oil index in the first quarter of 2020 hit a periodical high and low of US $ 63.38 and US $ 23.66 during the period. During the two and a half months of decline, the decline At 62.7%, the prices of energy and chemical products have also collapsed. Recently, with the stimulation of OPEC + production cut negotiations, oil prices and energy and chemical products have begun to stabilize and rebound. It is reported that the OPEC + negotiations took place on April 9th, and Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to a substantial reduction in production, but ’s refusal to reduce production caused the production reduction agreement to be blocked again. Eventually, only the draft agreement was reached, which was not as expected by the market. The G20 countries ’energy ministers made a special online meeting to decide that it is reported that the current crude oil production reduction agreement has basically been finalized. Russia and Saudi Arabia have shared the largest share of the production reduction, while the United States has shown an unusual willingness to help, but the G20 statement did not Mention specific production cut numbers and distribution methods, and there are contradictions after the meeting of many oil-producing countries. These will make the question of whether future production cuts can be finally implemented.

V. Summary and outlook:

The recent rebound driven by oil prices has finally relieved the market, the Wenhua Rubber Index 9430 has finally become a staged low support point, and rubber has once again returned to the familiar more than 10,000 yuan. However, as far as the current itself is concerned, the domestic and foreign production areas are currently in the cut-off period. The domestic production areas have been delayed in cutting, and the foreign production areas are also likely to delay cutting. The market does not have the basis for continued decline, but the tires Double pressure on domestic exports has hindered the start of tire production, and domestic and foreign terminal automobile production and sales have been severely frustrated, which has caused significant uncertainty in natural rubber demand, and domestic rubber stocks have returned to high levels again. In view of the current epidemic situation in the world, the recovery of terminal demand will at least become a longer medium-term problem. It may still be a weak demand to meet the cut production in the natural rubber production area in the later period, but fortunately, the domestic epidemic situation is controlled, as long as the domestic It can completely avoid the second domestic outbreak that may be caused by the increase in imported cases, and domestic demand will return to the right track with a high probability, but it cannot be ruled out that the instability of residents’ income caused by the epidemic will cause the weakening of consumer demand for automobiles.

For the later period, the fundamentals are not optimistic as mentioned above, but due to the current period of reaching the crude oil production reduction agreement, although the details of the results have not been determined, but the direction of the major production cuts has been determined, oil prices may enter the news to do more speculation, can be accompanied by chemical products Oil price stabilization will continue to stabilize in the short term. Hujiao is also expected to benefit technically and continue to build the bottom, forming a low operating range of the Wenhua Rubber Index of 9500-10800. For the No. 20 rubber, the corresponding bottoming interval will be in the Wenhua NR index Between 7500-8800, but it will be very stressful to quickly get out of the fundamentals of the bottom area.

Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/53973.html

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