Home Global Rubber Analytics & Outlook Weekly Summary: NR Futures Stopped Rising and Fluctuated (July 10 – July...

Weekly Summary: NR Futures Stopped Rising and Fluctuated (July 10 – July 16)

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1 Market Price

NR Weekly Average Price

SHFE

RU2009

(unit:RMB/mt)

INE

NR2009

(unit:RMB/mt)

TOCOM

(unit: yen/kg)

Jul 3

-Jul 9

10,595.00

8,892.00

156.92

Jul 10

-Jul 16

10,574.00

8,729.00

156.06

Change

-21.00

-163.00

-0.86

Change rate

-0.20%

-1.83%

-0.55%

Spot Market Price

China Mainstream Market NR Weekly Average Price

(unit: RMB/mt)

Market

Shanghai

Shandong

Grade

SCRWF

SVR 3L

RSS 3

STR 20  mixed

SCR10

Jul 3

-Jul 9

10,425

10,960

12,840

10,005

10,735

Jul 10

-Jul 16

10,445

10,790

12,870

9,990

10,730

Change

+20

-170

+30

-15

-5

Change rate

+0.19%

-1.55%

+0.23%

-0.15%

-0.05%

2.

From July 10 to July 16, SCI NR Price Index rose. As of July 16, the index was 870.32, up 2.09 or 0.24% from July 09. Within this week, natural rubber spot price fluctuated in a narrow range. Without guiding news, investors acted scrupulously. NR futures fluctuated, and the mainstream prices in the spot market saw no significant changes. However, the operating rate at plants moved up marginally. Some plants showed intention to stock up. Thus, market players should pay attention to the - fundamentals.

This week, NR futures fluctuated in a certain range. RU2009 price was in the range of RMB 10,450-10,800/mt, and the mainstream price was hovering around RMB 10,600/mt. Fundamentals showed no obvious structural change. NR futures were mostly affected by the market sentiment, repeatedly fluctuating in a certain range.

As of July 16, the weekly average price of RU2009 was RMB 10,574/mt, down RMB 21/mt or 0.20% W-O-W. The weekly average price of NR2009 was RMB 8,729/mt, down RMB 163/mt or 1.83% W-O-W.

3. Market Forecast

This week, NR futures stopped the two-week rise and began to fluctuate. RU2009 price failed to surpass RMB 10,815/mt and then quickly dropped. SCI holds that NR market will fluctuate downwards next week. RU2009 is supported by 20-day moving average of RMB 10,400/mt. However, in recent days, the stock market has tumbled, which weighs on the market sentiment. Fundamentals show no significant structural change. Although data regarding vehicles and heavy-duty trucks has turned better, the actual demand only improves a bit. Meanwhile, the bad export also drags down the demand side, and a decent recovery still needs time. On the supply side, the overseas production has become normal basically. China’s production is only average because of the tight supply of feedstock. However, more cargos have arrived and will arrive at ports in July, and fewer resources will be delivered out of warehouse than those put into storage. The high will continue. Overall, NR futures will find it hard to rise significantly next week and will fluctuate in a narrow range. RU2009 price may fluctuate in the range of RMB 10,400-10,900/mt.

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