Coming into the fourth quarter, can rubber prices continue to rise? Can natural rubber usher in a warm winter?
ANRPC again lowers production and consumption in 2020
This year, due to weather and epidemic conditions in China and Thailand, the rubber tapping time cycle was delayed and the output was low. ANRPC further reduced the output during the year. According to statistics from the Natural Rubber Production Association, from January to July 2020, the world’s natural rubber production fell by 8.9% year-on-year. According to the preliminary estimates of various countries as of July 2020 and the expected data for the rest of the year, the world output in 2020 is expected to be 13.149 million tons, a decrease of 4.9% from the previous year. This is slightly lower than the 2020 outlook reported in July 2020, which was 13.195 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% from the previous year.
In the third quarter, there were repeated epidemics in individual regions of the world, coupled with the weak economy. Although the domestic downstream tire and automobile industries recovered slowly, the demand in some foreign regions was slow to repair, resulting in weak transactions and poor market procurement. The consumption of natural rubber in the world from January to July decreased by 14.0% year-on-year. The outlook for world consumption in 2020 will be revised down to 12.544 million tons, a decrease of 8.9% from the previous year. The 2020 consumption outlook reported in July 2020 was 12.754 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% from the previous year.
Combining the actual production and consumption of ANRPC natural rubber from January to August, we can see that the total output from January to August reached 6,615,900 tons, the demand reached 5,220,300 tons, and the aggregate balance reached 1,395,600 tons. Among them, the balance in February reached the maximum in the past three consecutive months, mainly because in February, the country was basically in a stagnant stage, so the demand was greatly reduced, causing the global natural rubber balance to reach the maximum. The balance of July and August rose sharply compared with the second quarter, mainly due to the repeated epidemics in some areas in the third quarter and the slow economic recovery, which caused actual downstream demand to purchase on demand, so the balance increased significantly compared with the previous period. On the whole, the current global natural rubber is still in a situation of oversupply, restricting the room for rubber prices to rebound.
The pattern of domestic oversupply will continue
In the third quarter, the main production areas of natural rubber in China were affected by rainfall, resulting in relatively low output. According to statistics, from January to August, the total output reached 320,500 tons, down 22.73% from the same period last year. From the perspective of consumption, China’s actual demand from January to August reached 3,180,400 tons, down 13.63% from the same period last year. From January to July, domestic natural rubber imports reached 2.726 million tons. The import volume from January to July and the output from January to August totaled 3.0465 million. Compared with the consumption from January to August, the difference is less than 140,000 tons. As we all know, my country is a major importer of natural rubber, with an average monthly import volume of more than 140,000 tons. And as of mid-September, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao reached 843,000 tons.
Therefore, the domestic situation is still in a situation of oversupply. If the demand increases slowly in the fourth quarter, it may partially offset the pressure brought by the supply, but the probability of a comprehensive improvement basically does not exist. It is necessary to always pay attention to the actual situation of the downstream and social inventory.
Automobile production and sales are slowly picking up in some foreign regions, the driving force is slightly insufficient
With the steady recovery of the national economy in the third quarter, market demand gradually recovered. Under this background, the auto industry continued to recover and the situation continued to improve. Production and sales continued to grow in August. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in August reached 2.119 million and 2.186 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 11.6%. From January to August, the production and sales of automobiles were 14.432 million and 14.551 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% and 9.7%, respectively. The decline was 2.2 and 3 percentage points lower than the previous seven months, and continued to show a narrowing trend.
Judging from the production and sales data of foreign countries, the recent trend of the foreign auto market is still experiencing a cold wave. According to data released by the German Ministry of Transport on September 4, German new car sales in August this year fell 20% year-on-year to 251,044. As of August, Germany’s cumulative car sales in 2020 fell 29% year-on-year to 1.77 million vehicles. The sales decline in the German auto market in July seems to show signs of slowing down, only 5.4%. However, the decline in August once again sounded the alarm for recovery and recovery. As the largest auto market in Europe, the German auto market still faces severe challenges. .
The recent demand recovery of the downstream automobile industry in Japan is also relatively large. According to data released by Japan’s eight major automakers, its global production in July fell by 14.37% year-on-year, and the degree of decline was significantly narrower than that in May and June. The latest data released on September 1 showed that the sales of new cars in Japan fell 15.9% year-on-year to 326,400 vehicles, and the impact of the epidemic on the market continues.
On the whole, the natural rubber industry chain will continue to recover slowly in the fourth quarter, but the time period is relatively long. The market still has room for upside, but the range may be limited. Be cautious.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/56382.html