As of the closing price of natural rubber futures 2101 main contract closing price to 12475, the market’s center of gravity continued to rise compared with the previous day, and there is a short-term test of the expectations of the 12,500 top-line pressure. Coming into the fourth quarter, will rubber prices continue to rise? Will the natural rubber market usher in a warm winter?
ANRPC again lowers production and consumption in 2020
This year, due to weather and epidemic conditions in China and Thailand, the rubber tapping time cycle was delayed and the output was low. ANRPC further reduced the output during the year. According to statistics from the Natural Rubber Production Association, from January to July 2020, the world’s natural rubber production fell by 8.9% year-on-year. According to the preliminary estimates of various countries as of July 2020 and the expected data for the rest of the year, the world output in 2020 is expected to be 13.149 million tons, a decrease of 4.9% from the previous year. This is slightly lower than the 2020 outlook reported in July 2020, which was 13.195 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% from the previous year.
In the third quarter, there were repeated epidemics in individual regions of the world, coupled with the weak economy. Although the domestic downstream tire and automobile industries recovered slowly, the demand in some foreign regions was slow to repair, resulting in weak transactions and poor market procurement. World natural rubber consumption from January to July fell by 14.0% year-on-year. The outlook for world consumption in 2020 will be revised down to 12.544 million tons, a decrease of 8.9% from the previous year. The 2020 consumption outlook reported in July 2020 was 12.754 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% from the previous year.
Combining the actual production and consumption of ANRPC natural rubber from January to August, we can see that the total output from January to August reached 6,615,900 tons, the demand reached 5,220,300 tons, and the aggregate balance reached 1,395,600 tons. Among them, the balance in February reached the maximum in the past three consecutive months, mainly because in February, the country was basically in a stagnant stage, so the demand was greatly reduced, causing the global natural rubber balance to reach the maximum. The balance of July and August rose sharply compared with the second quarter, mainly due to the repeated epidemics in some areas in the third quarter and the slow economic recovery, which caused actual downstream demand to purchase on demand, so the balance increased significantly compared with the previous period. On the whole, the global natural rubber is still in a situation of oversupply, restricting the room for rubber prices to rebound.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/56383.html